You will hear all around the industry, “wait on QB”.
I tried proving that wrong last year and took Aaron Rodgers early (in auction, I spent more than I should have on him) and I paid for it. I was, and have been, one of those people who don’t mind taking a quarterback early, but as I have been playing more and more fantasy football and putting my strategic thoughts to the test, I have been proved wrong.
Waiting on quarterback, or spending minimal in auction, is a better path to go, trust me, I’ve been in your shoes!
Last year, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes were drafted as the QB13, 14, and 15; they proceeded to finish as the top-three QB’s in fantasy.
You know where Rodgers finished? It wasn’t bad, but he was QB7.
Let’s take a look at three QB’s you can find later in your fantasy drafts that I believe could finish the season as QB1’s.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Loaded Box Consensus Ranking: QB17
My Ranking: QB12
Prescott was a tale of two different quarterbacks last season. The quarterback without Amari Cooper, and the one with Amari Cooper.
His weekly average from week’s 1-7 was 19 fantasy points per game, making him more of a QB2 and someone who you could likely find on the waiver wire. But then Cooper arrived and helped boost Prescott’s numbers to an average of 22 fantasy points per game – and if you add week 17’s 4-touchdown performance, he would of averaged 27.8 points per game!
Now I know you will look at his weekly points and say that there really wasn’t much of a difference in yards, but if you look at his attempts prior to Cooper’s arrival, he was averaging 29 attempts before Cooper and 40 attempts once Cooper became a member of the Cowboys.
With the addition of Cooper over a 16-game season, Prescott’s stats would have been 456/640 for 4,936 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions to go along with 70 rush attempts, 138 rushing yards and eight touchdowns – easily making him a top-five quarterback.
With the offseason additions of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten to go with Cooper and Michael Gallup, this offense should be a fun one for fantasy, and Prescott is one I am targeting.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Loaded Box Consensus Ranking: QB19
My Ranking: QB14
As a rookie last season, Allen truly played like one in his first six games failing to throw for over 250 yards, including three games he failed to amass 100 passing yards. Allen was looking like a total bust and another wasted first-round pick by the Buffalo Bills.
He missed the following four games with an elbow injury but returned for the final six games and became a fantasy standout at the QB position.
During that six-week stretch, not only was Allen a QB1, but he was the overall QB1. He was on a 16-game pace of 251/483 for 3,312 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns and 19 interceptions. These numbers are not impressive until you add those rushing stats in that Allen was routinely producing. His stretch of six games as fantasy football’s QB1 extrapolated over a full 16-game season result in 144 rushing attempts for 1,269 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.
Okay, I get it, those are insane stats to maintain over a 16-game pace, but Allen’s rushing stats were a hell of a lot better and more consistent than what Lamar Jackson was doing.
Also, a lot of Allen’s runs were not designed runs as he ad libbing as the play broke down to produce those yards with his legs. It’s hard to maintain that kind of rushing stats moving forward, but even a slight downtick of say 30% less still results in about 900 rushing yards and nearly nine touchdowns. Regardless, some sort of regression is coming.
Luckily for Allen, the Bills had a productive offseason with the signings of John Brown, Cole Beasley, Tyler Kroft, T.J Yeldon, and Frank Gore to go along with a couple of offensive lineman.
They didn’t stop addressing the offensive side of the ball in the draft either as they added offensive lineman Cody Ford in the second round along with running bck Devin Singletary – who has the similar pedigree as LeSean McCoy – and tight end Dawson Knox.
With the added offensive playmakers at Allen’s disposal, and a bolstered offensive line, not only could I see Allen finishing as a top-10 quarterback, but potentially as high as top six.
I’d be glad to get him as my QB2 in all leagues and he’s definitely someone I would be happy to pair with on the same team as Prescott.
Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Loaded Box Consensus Ranking: QB22
My Ranking: QB15
It is easy to say that no one is going to take Trubisky as their fantasy starter coming into the 2019 season, but I’m here to tell you that he’ll be a good option if you want a second QB on your bench.
How could he not? Trubisky offers more than enough appeal to be worth a late-round pick or a $1 player for your auction team. Why? Trubisky’s six touchdown performance week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the single-highest fantasy point total for the 2018 season!
Looking like a bust coming into his second season and first under Matt Nagy, Trubisky finished the 2018 season with 3,223 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to go along with 421 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
The 2018 season was an up and down season for Trubiksy thanks in large part to the Bears’ dominating defense making it so that the offense didn’t have to do too much on a weekly basis. But keep in mind that it’s pretty hard for defenses to repeat as the top fantasy defense year in and year out.
I can see Trubisky stepping up in his second year in Nagy’s offense and his schedule for 2019 hints that there will be a lot of high-scoring contests.
A second year with Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton along with a backfield that has Tarik Cohen and standout rookie David Montgomery has me excited as it looks to be a very pass-happy offense while also featuring the ability to possess a thunder-and-lightning style run game.
This offense looks like a junior New Orleans Saints’ offense in the making. I’m excited to get a share of Trubisky as a QB2 for any of my fantasy teams, because if everything goes like I think it will, he definitely has top-12 QB potential.
Be sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast as the guys discuss second-year RB’s & TE’s and how they’ll factor into the 2019 fantasy football season!
Check out our 2019 fantasy football position-by-position rankings