Top 3 to Bet: NFL Week 10 Gambling Picks

A costly Aaron Jones fumble basically put to bed my hopes of a perfect weekend as I had to settle for going 2-1 while finishing +2 units for the week.

Once again, getting above the .500 mark and being on the positive side of total units for the season is in reach, and it’s about damn time I come through as I’m ready to start turning a profit since we’re already a couple weeks into the second half of the season.

This week’s picks will be another new experience as I’ve selected a standard against the spread pick, an over/under point total, and a 2-team teaser bet.

So let’s gamble!

Week 9 Results: 2-1; +2 units
Year-to-Date Results: 12-14; -6 units

 

Washington Redskins +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you remember last week, I was debating between betting on the Falcons against the Redskins or taking the over in that game. I ended up going with the over because I was hesitant about how well the Redskins’ defense has played recently. While the Falcons had their way against the Redskins’ defense last week, I’m jumping back on them this week against an unpredictable Tampa Bay squad.

While we’ve seen Tampa’s offense show the ability to put up points with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, please don’t be ignorant to the fact that Fitzpatrick is the same QB he’s always been. He’ll have breakout games and look like a top-end quarterback just to completely fool you the next week throwing as many interceptions as he threw touchdowns the week before.

Not many expected the Redskins to be as relevant as they are at this point in the season. As current NFC East division leaders, Washington is 5-3 both straight up and against the spread this season while Tampa is the exact opposite at 3-5 both SU & ATS.

The downfall for the Redskins this season has been their struggle to score offensively. However, the beauty in playing Tampa Bay is that the Bucs are the perfect team to try to get right against as they allow nearly 35 points per game.

One last unimpressive aspect to the Bucs’ 3-5 record both straight up and against the spread is the fact that they started the season 2-0, meaning they’ve covered the spread just one time in the last five games. And if you remember, the game they did cover during this stretch was the miracle comeback two weeks ago against the Bengals, which they ultimately lost straight up, but did cover the spread, breaking several hearts in the process.

It looks like we’ve entered the portion of the season where the Buccaneers are going to continue to decline, and while I’m not saying Washington is a top-end team or even playoff worthy, but I believe they are solid enough defensively to stay relevant a little while longer. Give me 2 units on the Racial Slurs.

 

 

Point Total Over 50.5: Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Back in early October these two teams met and the Rams came out on top, 33-31. Since then, three of the last four Rams’ games have had the under hit, but keep in mind that two of these games had point totals of 57 points. On top of that, another one of these unders hit despite the Rams putting up 39 points – the issue was that the 49ers added just 10 points in that game.

Now we’ve recently seen the Rams in back-to-back games against capable offenses and the points they’ve allowed have increased, allowing 27 points to Green Bay and 45 to New Orleans. While the Seahawks’ offense isn’t on the same page as the Saints, they should still be able to hang about 28 points against a beatable defense in what could turn into a back-and-forth matchup.

Offensively, the Rams average 33 points per game, and an overlooked fact about this team is that they don’t have to rely on just one aspect of their offense in order to be successful. They average a league-best 144 yards per game on the ground while still putting up over 300 yards per game through the air.

I’m not sure we’ll see 64 combined points again like we saw in the first matchup, but I don’t think the point total of 50.5 is high enough. I’m taking the over for 2 units.

 

2-team, 6-point tease: New York Jets -1 vs. Buffalo Bills / Los Angeles Chargers -4 @ Oakland Raiders

In the event you’re not sure how math works, the Jets are favored by seven while the Chargers are favored by 10, so by teasing it I basically need the Jets to win by two or more while the Chargers need to win by at least five.

Let’s move on now that the math is out of the way.

If you’ve been following along with my picks this season you’ll know that this is my first teaser of the year, and I’m a really big fan of it since I almost considered taking both of these teams at their current spreads without the tease.

I said it once again on the podcast last week that I’m tired of not taking advantage of games in which Nathan Peterman is the starting quarterback, so I’m not missing out again this week. It’s gotten so bad for Peterman and Buffalo that a Go Fund Me page has been created in an attempt to raise enough funds to get him to retire – this is not even a joke.

In the event the Bills opt to go a different direction at quarterback this week, I still like the Jets if all they need to do is win by two or more.

It now looks like Sam Darnold will not be available for this game, but I don’t foresee that news doing anything to the line on this game as Josh McCown is just as capable of leading the Jets to a win against the Bills as Darnold is at this point in his career.

On the other side of this tease, the Oakland Raiders are terrible. And if for some reason you may have believed otherwise, getting throttled by Nick Mullens and the San Francisco 49ers last week should have been enough to make you change your mind.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have been red hot, and despite being overshadowed in their division by the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles has now won its last five games. We’re starting to see Keenan Allen heat up as he posted his best game since Week 1 last week, both Tyrell and Mike Williams are continuing to rack up the yards and touchdowns, and if it wasn’t for Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt tearing it up, Melvin Gordon would be getting much more national attention than he’s getting.

The Raiders lack of skill players on offense and a lackluster defense against all of the Chargers’ weapons is a definite recipe for disaster. I believe the tanking in Oakland continues this week as I’m adding them in this tease with the Jets for 3 units.

 

Be sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast as the guys preview Week 10 in the NFL with their daily fantasy sports bargain, stacks and advice to go along with listener fantasy football trade scenarios!

Ben Morgan is a co-host and blogger for the Loaded Box Podcast. Check out his article archive and find more from the Loaded Box on Twitter & Facebook

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