Each week I will post a recap of the previous week. Whether my picks were spot on or my process led me astray. So let’s get this started with my cash game picks.
CASH GAME PLAYS
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $6,500
When it comes to hitting that 3X mark (6500 x 3 = 19) we all look for in cash games, Josh Allen tends to always make it happen. There were only five games last season when he did not reach a score that was at least 3x his salary. Don’t forget he had to play the Patriots twice. His rushing ability or “Konami Code” as some of us in the industry call it, allows his floor to not be as reliant on passing attempts or touchdowns because only 40 yards of rushing equals one passing touchdown. He will not be game scripted out if they gain a huge lead. Facing the horrible Jets’ defense, Allen is a no doubter.
Dwayne Haskins, Washington Football Team – $5,000
The fact that a starting QB is priced behind backups like Jacoby Brissett ($5,100) and Jarrett Stidham ($5,200) is offensive. Dwayne Haskins is clearly being price based on his worst showings last year. We should all be taking advantage of this error. He will definitely be facing negative game script in this game against Philadelphia. I firmly believe that he and his best weapon, Terry McLaurin, will show that the sophomore leap is not a myth. The last time Washington played Philadelphia in week 15 of last season, Haskins only needed to complete 19 out of his 28 attempts to reach 20 points. He was showing signs of improving week after week. I believe this is the best QB value on the slate this week.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers – $10,000
You can afford him, do not over think it.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,800
Any RB facing a completely depleted defense will always be a solid play. But a defense like Carolina and an efficient back like Jacobs is a smash play. Potentially not being involved as a receiver isn’t even a concern. Jon Gruden has show that he does not mind using Jacobs as the workhorse and will feed him rushing attempt after rushing attempt, especially in the red zone. This could be the chalkiest play of the week, for good reason.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team – $5,600
Easily the best value WR this week. There is a complete lack of target competition coming from the other receivers in Washington. McLaurin destroyed the Eagles in both games last year, posting 5-125-1 in his rookie debut week 1 and 5-130-1 in week 15. Philadelphia did acquire Darius Slay this offseason, but no one should be afraid of that WR-CB matchup. I could see a top-five performance from McLaurin this week. Without a doubt the top value play at the WR position.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,100
Look at the narrative for Godwin. Incredible slot receiver in an offense led by Tom Brady going against a high-powered offense in the New Orleans Saints. Of course there are question marks regarding all the changes in this offense, but when there is this much talent, it is hard to overlook the potential. There are reports that Mike Evans was not spotted at practice Thursday because of a hamstring injury, making him a game-time decision on Sunday. Any stats from last year could be irrelevant since the offense has changed so much, but all the facts that have been presented make Godwin an easy addition to your cash game lineup.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets – $5,200
Man, the Jets really suck, but getting 10 targets against the Bills week 17 last year, and 17 against them week 1; just lock him in. There is still lack of competition for targets. Doesn’t feel good, but hey, cheap targets pay off in DFS.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,800
Whenever Philadelphia lacks a healthy X receiver, Zach Ertz always benefits. He just eats up everyone’s leftovers when they cannot get on the field. I swear he is just draining the strength of the players around him. Not only did he lead his team in targets, but he also nearly doubled his team lead in red zone targets. I do not see anything changing.
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team – $2,800
This guy is the starting TE for the Washington Football Team and do not let anyone tell you otherwise. Even though Jeremy Sprinkle is priced higher than him, do not worry. Thomas has the athletic profile to become the second pass catcher behind McLaurin and it’s really not even close. When it comes to a starting player in an ambiguous offense that needs someone to step up, AND is priced below 3k, just close your eyes and add him into your lineup. It really is that easy.
New Orleans Saints – $2,400
Great defense facing a team that will most likely have to put themselves in a position where they are susceptible to the ball bouncing the wrong way and ending up in the hands of an opposing team’s player. Don’t worry about them giving up points. They will get their chances for turnovers and sacks.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $8,100
Not much to say here since Jackson is coming off one of the best seasons in the history of fantasy football. When a player has a chance of getting the DOUBLE BONUS by hitting the 300 passing yard mark + 100 yard rushing mark, it’s easy to talk yourself into it. That doesn’t even include rushing or passing TD upside. Many people will avoid because of the price and the lack of obvious stacking options.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers – $5,800
Jimmy G is an extremely efficient QB that likes to throw the ball in the red zone. Each game script from last year had the 49ers’ running backs leading them to victory. Not this year. Defensive regression will allow Jimmy to take over. He smashed in both of his matchups against the Cardinals last year, and now that Arizona has a fighting chance with its improved offense, this will be a sneak shoot out. Garoppolo will be overlooked and can pay off big time this week.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – $7,200
Efficient players like Kamara will always be great tournament plays. He is not guaranteed a huge workload like other backs, but when he gets the ball he is a wizard. Don’t expect his receiving work to slow down this year. Nothing has changed in this offense. Another reason he is a sneak play is because a vast percentage of the donkeys that fill tournaments will look at a player in the pool and see that red 1st next to his name and avoid him purely off the matchup alone. It’s so exciting. Kamara is one of those running backs that can thrive in a fast-pace game script.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – $5,700
All the talk surrounding Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor’s workloads is irrelevant. JT is in the perfect situation this week. If anyone has the potential to hit a home run it’s him. We all know Jacksonville is tanking hard. Even harder than the Dolphins last year if you can believe that. Morale will be low and all Taylor did in college was pull off the long runs. He has the speed to do it and all it will take is a few long runs for him to get the bonus and a TD or two. His upside is through the roof.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons – $6,100
Nothing has changed in Atlanta. They will be battling the Seahawks in a game with a huge point total. Calvin has never been a stranger to the end zone. He absolutely has the potential to see his typical deep targets from Matt Ryan as they are trying to keep up with Seattle. He’s one of the more TD-reliant players, but if I am going to rely on touchdowns from a certain WR, it will be Ridley.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – $4,900
Target competition and whatever. Huge upside as shown last year in the same matchup. Wentz clearly feels comfortable targeting him all over the field, and when the time is right, the classic (almost cliche at this point) deep ball attempts to Jackson will come. And when they hit, you will feel your bank account getting larger. Positive regression from Washington’s offense will force the Eagles’ offense to show them how much fire power they really have.
Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers – $5,000
Like I said, the Arizona + San Francisco game will most likely end up being a shootout. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are still having trouble getting through practice. I’m sure you’re wondering, who could have possibly led the 49ers in receiving touchdowns last year? It just happened to be George Kittle and then Kendrick Bourne. Expect at least one touchdown from the Bourne Identity this weekend in San Francisco.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $7200
Being the #1 target for a hyper-accurate QB while in a game that many people are calling a blowout is a great situation to find yourself in. Kittle will always do Kittle things, especially against the Cardinals. Even if Aiyuk and Samuel end up on the field, Kittle will always be the favorite target of his QB. Tournament players seem to find themselves fading the most-expensive option at TE since there are some of the cheapest options you can find. But this week do not look past the top #1 TE on the board.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers – $5,300
At first glance, I figured this game would be a complete stay away. There is one exception, Hunter Henry. This Chargers’ offense might not be as dead as we think. With Mike Williams‘ injury, it allows Henry to slide into #2 receiving duties just behind Keenan Allen. One of the main reasons HH is in play is the lack of ownership. If he can put up 3x with extremely low ownership you will be setup for success.
Washington Football Team – $2,000
2k? For a position on DK? Low owned? With an upgraded defensive line going against an injury-riddled offensive line? Fuck it, why not.
CASH GAME LOCKED IN PLAYER
DO NOT HIT SUBMIT WITHOUT THIS PLAYER
TOURNAMENT LOCK OF THE WEEK
DO NOT HIT SUBMIT WITHOUT THIS PLAYER
CASH GAME STACK OF THE WEEK
Dwayne Haskins – Terry McLaurin – Logan Thomas
Run it back with Zach Ertz in the flex spot
TOURNAMENT GAME STACK OF THE WEEK
Jimmy Garoppolo – Kendrick Bourne – George Kittle
Run it back with Andy Isabella for extra tournament spice
Be sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast as we provide our straight up & against the spread picks for each game on the week-one schedule!