College Football Bowl Games – Live Betting Blog

The degenerate gamblers of the Loaded Box Podcast decided to come together and provide all of our thoughts regarding the 2019-20 College Football Bowl Games in one place.

Here you’ll have the opportunity to enter the minds of DJ Premo, Logan Beatty and Ben Morgan, which is a terrifying, yet enjoyable, place to be. To get an idea of what I mean, here’s a quick glimpse into each person’s gambling strategy…

DJ Premo – My first advice. Skip over me and read Logan’s section below then come back here. Done? Great. I was both lucky and smart enough to ride Logan’s coattails through bowl season, 2018. How do we do it? We text back and forth while we research every god damn game on the board. Once Logan has all of the information he needs, he comes to a decision and I do whatever he says. Honestly, if you don’t bet every bowl game you should be excommunicated. This is the last time you get to bet college for a long time. Let her ride. PS… This is not a schtick. We actually bet every game on the board. It’s a god damn rush!

Logan Beatty – A couple things the people should know before they start taking our advice during this bowl gambling process. There have been many tall tales told about my gambling prowess last year. My Action Network app only goes back to early November of this year in my “All time bets” section of the app (If you needed any further proof of my degeneracy, here you are), but I can tell you with 99.9% certainty that last bowl season, I had a run of 18-0. EIGHTEEN AND OH. The only way I was able to go on that run: I BET EVERY GOD DAMN GAME ON THE BOARD. Also, after the tragedy that was the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl, something in my mind clicked. It was like one of those super-hero transformations you see in a Marvel movie; like the shittiness of that Cheez-It bowl unlocked something in my mind. I didn’t lose again. Every bet I chose turned to gold. I didn’t have to pay my bookie for over 2 months after that magical run. Let me tell you something, when you win like that in gambling your food tastes better, sex feels better, and you can finally look at yourself in the mirror without disgust…It’s wonderful. I recommend it.

Ben Morgan – Be selective when gambling on football. Unless it’s Bowl Season, then make sure you go out of your way to gamble on EVERY. SINGLE. GAME.

We’ll update this often, especially as each game gets closer, so be sure to check back daily to get our latest picks and remarks.

Let’s wrap this intro up so you don’t have to scroll as far to read about the games you’re interested in. Let’s Get Loaded!

December 20

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Charlotte
2pm, ESPN

Time to pop our proverbial Bowl Season cherry! Now, I’ll be flying back from sunny Orlando on the 20th, but my flight back is at 3:30, giving me plenty of time to place a bet, get angry watching the first half at the Orlando International Airport Chili’s/heaven then make a bet on the plane to hedge, all while sitting next to my wife who will be completely oblivious to the fact that I’m losing our Christmas money. Charlotte plus the points! – Logan

As of December 14, I’m already going against my betting strategy listed above as I don’t have an official play on this game. However, Logan’s usage of he and his wife’s Christmas money has made me want to make a play. I’ve got a little time yet, I may revisit this game and make a play just yet! – Ben

If you read Logan’s comment. You know I am betting Charlotte. This may be boring but we went 18-0 at one point last year so fuck you. Even before knowing what Logan had bet, my money was leaning Charlotte. Charlotte was a cover machine this year and played really well down the stretch. Swallow the points and sprinkle the money line. – DJ

Charlotte went 6-6 against the spread this season. In case you wanted clarification as to what DJ meant by “cover machine” – Ben

All I know is if you were .500 gambling, which you aren’t. You would be ecstatic. – DJ

The picture below is our most up-to-date against the spread standings for this NFL season. First, one of these things is not like the other. Second, keep in mind that DJ handles people’s money for a living, but apparently computing averages escapes him… – Ben

First off, this is a spread sheet that Ben keeps by hand. He completely controls it. Second, this is college football not the NFL and in college football I have been significantly better. Third, Ben likes to pretend like he is betting a bunch of games but in reality he bets like two games a weekend. Can’t ever trust a guy who pretends to be a degenerate. In the famous words of Eminem; “Ain’t no such thing as halfway crooks.” – DJ

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Utah State (-7) vs. Kent State
7:30pm, ESPN2

First off, let me just start the analysis of this bowl game by giving a big fuck you to Gary Andersen. This rotten bastard single handedly tried to ruin UW football by recruiting sub 300 lb offensive lineman and completely avoided in state recruiting. THOSE 3 STAR KIDS ARE THE LIFEBLOOD OF OUR PROGRAM GARY! HOW ELSE WOULD WE WIN 10 GAMES AND MAKE A GOOD NOT GREAT BOWL GAME! Now that that’s out of my system, I’m really leaning Kent State plus the points here. Playing non Power 5 schools, they’ve averaged over well over 30 points a game. Utah State’s defense stinks. Kent State’s defense stinks too, but I like KSU’s offense a little more. Now obviously, everyone is going to be on this over, which is totally fine. You gotta bet the overs with offenses like this in a bowl game, but I do think Kent State is the pick here. If this thing climbs up to 7 points, jump on it. – Logan

Utah State has a potential first-round QB in Jordan Love, and to my knowledge, Kent State is most known for playing in a place called Dix Stadium. That’s sort of what this game is, it’s dick. Watch it if you’re a fan of an NFL team in the market for a rookie QB, otherwise, do a little work around the house during this one so that you have a built-up excuse for binge watching other upcoming bowl games – Ben

I am leaning Utah State for two reasons that have nothing to do with their actual play. First, I feel like Utah St quietly good at either college football or basketball every year. Second, Kent is not a state. Trust me, I check the map. I thought maybe it was in Kentucky but it’s not. This place is in fucken Ohio. Can’t trust a team like that. Utah State plus the points. –DJ

It came out earlier this week that a number of Utah State players were being charged with criminal possession of banned substances and the QB, Jordan Love, didn’t pass a drug test. But when you have a scumbag head coach like Andersen, there are no such thing as morals and repercussions for negative actions that give a fine University like Utah State a black eye. DJ and myself immediately jumped on Kent +6.5 and sprinkled the money line once it was released they had been arrested. Unfortunately for us law abiding citizens, we have to watch Utah State rub their immorality in our face. All players arrested/cited will be allowed to play – Logan

December 21

Celebration Bowl
Alcorn State vs. North Carolina A&T (-3)
Noon, ABC

After researching this game, I have concluded that no one gives a shit about this game. I can’t find anything. I actually googled both of these schools locations. Will I watch and bet this game? Of course. It’s a bowl game but more importantly, they are both historically black colleges. I am all in. Let’s go with the over 51.5 because what I did learn is both of these teams can score. This hardly seems like enough points. – DJ

New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State (-3)
2pm, ESPN

The over/under point total in this game is currently at 41 points. San Diego State hasn’t played in a game that’s reached more than 30 total points since October 26. On the other hand, Central Michigan averages 35 points per game while allowing nearly 27 per game. While the Chippewas score a pile of points, they don’t really play any quality opponents – and when they do – they don’t score too much (shutout vs. Wisconsin, 12 vs. Miami, 21 vs. Miami-Ohio). I typically like taking overs in bowl games, however, despite the low point total here, I’d lay a small wager on the under – Ben

After further research, just one of San Diego State’s 12 games this season went over. That is insane. Now I’m leaning towards pounding the under – Ben

After reading Ben’s comments and doing some of my own research, I also love the under 41.5 in this game. SDSU is second in the nation against the run and fourth in the nation in scoring D. Hopefully Logan likes it too otherwise I will have to change my mind. Stay away from the spread in this game. – DJ

SDSU unders are so solid. Definitely one of the more overlooked bets of the college football year. I am with Ben big time. Under should be the main play here. I feel strongly about SDSU -3.5 as well. They have been in some tight battles all year, but I trust their defense so much that I think anything under than SDSU -5 is a safe play. This has my teaser senses tingling as well, if you want to play it safer. –Logan

FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern (-6)
2:30pm, CBS Sports Network

I’ve got a double-digit win here for a team favored by less than a touchdown. Winners of six of their last eight, Georgia Southern should handle a seven-win team in Liberty as the Eagles are the only team that was able to knock off Appalachian State this season. Unfortunately for Liberty, the 2019 season will be remembered for the time Hugh Freeze coached from a hospital bedBen

Georgia Southern runs the triple option and Liberty can’t stop the run. Liberty excels throwing the ball and Georgia can’t stop the pass. Easy over 57.5. Also in regards to Ben’s comment on Georgia Southern. The win over App St was an upset. They are a weak football team. I need to go against Ben here. I will take the points with Liberty… unless Logan decides otherwise. – DJ

I love Georgia Southern and I hate Liberty. Liberty has a weird televangelist running the college (university? I don’t know what the fuck they are). I went to Universal Orlando the other day and they had a party for the Liberty and Georgia Southern players. They weren’t wearing team specific gear and I was pretty far away, but I’m pretty sure the Liberty players were all drunk as fuck. Probably smoking that shit too. I would lean over and lean Georgia State. –Logan

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
SMU (-8.5) vs. Florida Atlantic
3:30pm, ABC

I hate the spread in this game as we are coming off of Lane Kiffin’s departure and SMU struggle against winning teams on the road. But there is one thing I do love and that’s the over. You know what the say. Life’s too short to bet the under. SMU is 9-2-1 in overs this year and these two teams combine to score almost 80 ppg. SMASH the over of 70.5 in this game. – DJ

One thing you cannot trust is SMU stopping anybody. I am a little concerned about The departure of Kiffin, but it generally goes one of two ways: the team is fired up and they play to win for themselves and their interim coach/new head coach taking the job, or they lay a complete egg. This is a true home game for FAU, so expect the retired 50 somethings that live in Boca to pack the stadium to about 1/8th full. I definitely lean over here, because it’s SMU, but I would be willing to also bet SMU minus the points as well. –Logan

This spread opened with SMU around a three-point favorite and has since jumped up to eight points now on game day. Reports are that three starters have been suspended for the bowl game. I wanted to take the underdog in FAU after their impressive 49-6 win in the C-USA Conference Championship game against UAB, but I’m passing on this game – Ben

Camellia Bowl
Florida International vs. Arkansas State (-1)
5:30pm, ESPN

I do not know much about these teams but they have both struggled this season. I do know they have gone a combined 17-28 on the over this year. Nothing more fun than betting overs. When I see a stat like this I don’t need to look any further. The play is OVER 62. – DJ

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State vs. Washington (-3.5)
7:30pm, ABC

I’m getting three and the hook with a 12-win team against a team that just learned their coach is leaving? Washington did take the Apple Cup in its last action against Washington State, but the Huskies have lost four of their last seven games and never did reach expectations several had for the squad led by Jacob Eason. I’ll take the underdog here in Boise State – Ben

This is a game where the big time school had a disappointing and could care less about this bowl game. Washington will not show up. Boise St is an easy pick for me in this game. – DJ

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State (-16.5) vs. UAB
9pm, ESPN

16.5 points is way too many points for me to lay. Research says that both of these teams has stingy defenses and have hit the under consistently this year. I will take the under 47.5. It is disgusting to bet the under but this is about winning. And God damnit Logan, it’s winning season! – DJ

After fact checking DJ, similar to the Buffalo/Charlotte game above, his research regarding the under hitting consistently for these two teams is a bit misleading. Both teams had six overs and seven unders this season, so it’s pretty damn close to 50/50, if my math checks out. I’m going opposite of DJ here – give me the over on 47.5 total points – Ben

Should have fact checked better. UAB games have gone under in 4 of their last 6 games. App St games have gone under in 6 of their last 9. That is a combined 10 of their last 15 games. That’s what we call recent trends. That is not misleading. That’s what you would call “consistent.” Check mate. – DJ

Update following the game: 31+17 = 48. And since 48 > 47.5 = an Over victory, I’ll stick with my version of fact checking – Ben

December 23

Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
UCF (-15.5) vs. Marshall
2:30pm, ESPN

Marshall got murdered by Cincinnati earlier this season and Cincinnati does not have that great of an offense. UCF feels disrespected every single year. For that reason I expect UCF to come out and fist fuck the Herd and never stop pounding. I’ll lay the 17.5 with UCF. – DJ

It’s officially game day and I haven’t made a pick yet. I’m not a huge fan of betting on this game, but since it’s the only game of the day, I have to make a play. There’s some late money coming in on Marshall as we’ve seen this spread drop from 17.5 to 15.5 over the last couple of days, but I’m not going to follow that trend. Give me UCF here. The Knights are averaging 18 more points per game than the Thundering Herd while both are allowing 23. Additionally, UCF has one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the nation, so in the event Marshall finds success against either the run or pass, I feel confident in UCF being able to adapt and put up enough points here. My final piece of advice here is to not make this a huge wager. Yes, you should bet since it’s the only game today, but neither team has shown any consistency against the spread this season (UCF 5-7 ATS, Marshall 4-8 ATS), and this is a big number for a bowl game – Ben

December 24

SoFi Hawai’i Bowl
Hawai’i vs. BYU (-2)
8pm, ESPN

A bowl game in Hawai’i, that includes the University of Hawai’i, is just another game. A bowl game in Hawai’i for any other team that’s not the University of Hawai’i, is a vacation. I know, this can’t be the only reason I’m taking Hawai’i here, but it does factor in. Additionally, BYU wasn’t impressive this season – finishing 7-5 – and went just 4-8 against the spread. BYU is slightly better on defense, Hawai’i is slightly better on offense; and while this should be an entertaining game, I love the idea of getting points with the “home” team – Ben

I have only this analysis that I have learned from intern Logan. That’s some “Lost” shit. You don’t go to the Island and come away with a win. Hawai’i ML. – DJ

I should have asked for finger nails for Christmas – definitely lost the ones I had watching this game. But hey, it’s a winner! – Ben

December 26

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Miami (-6)
4pm, ESPN

The unfortunate thing for Louisiana Tech is that two of its three losses this season came in their last three games. The unfortunate thing for Miami is the fact that they basically stunk this season after teasing everyone in “Week Zero” after almost knocking off Florida. The Hurricanes also finished the season on a low note losing back-to-back games against Florida International and Duke (what world do we live in where the University of Miami is losing to those teams?!?!?!), and I wouldn’t be surprised if LA Tech wins this game outright. Sign me up for the Bulldogs getting six points – Ben

I have watched Miami quit the last 2 years during bowl season. This is a team you cannot trust to show up and try in a bowl game. They just want to be in Miami on vacation and kissin’ titties with Mitch Trubisky. No way Miami shows up. Louisiana Tech plus the 6. – DJ

Quick Lane Bowl
Pittsburgh (-13) vs. Eastern Michigan
8pm, ESPN

I hate this game and I don’t have a strong lean either way, but after not having a single college football game to bet on yesterday, I’ve gotta make a play here. Pittsburgh struggles to score offensively, EMU struggles defensively, so in a game where something’s gotta give, I’m going to punt on picking a side and go with a play on the over/under point total. The line is currently set at 49.5 and I’m taking the under. Eight of Pittsburgh’s 11 games this season have gone under, and I’d expect a little rust from both of these teams after the holidays – Ben

December 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
North Carolina (-5.5) vs. Temple
Noon, ESPN

This game is a no doubter for me and I will speak for Logan here as well. If you don’t take Temple you are wrong. This is one of three or four teams I took every week and they were a true cover machine as dogs. No doubt we made money on them. No studying here. When a team wins you money you stay loyal to them. FYI… You are required to HOOT HOOT every time they score. You are welcome for free money. – DJ

Logan

I HATE agreeing with DJ when he’s this confident in a game, but damnit, I’m in on Temple, too. Does anyone really trust a 6-6 team whose most impressive game this season was actually a loss (their loss to Clemson)? The beautiful thing here is you don’t even need to win the game outright since you’re getting 5.5 points. I’m taking the points, but wouldn’t be shocked by an outright win by Temple – Ben

Ben should be riding my cock on every bowl game. I went 32-0 last year. Never Forget. – DJ

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Wake Forest
3:20pm, ESPN

Wake Forest isn’t good at defense – but here’s the good news – Michigan State is fairly inept when it comes to offense. The Spartans averaged just 22 points per game and I don’t imagine they’ll take much advantage of Wake Forest’s defense in this matchup. Michigan State has clearly faced a more difficult schedule than Wake Forest, I can’t argue that, but I’ve seen very little from the Spartans this year that leads me to believe they’ll win this game by more than three points. Additionally, the Spartans are just 3-9 against the spread the season and have lost five of their last seven games straight up – Ben

Michigan State has been an abomination to football this season. They’ve had scandal, they’ve had letdowns, and I’m pretty sure they may actually fire their coach. I made a rule pretty early on that I would not bet Michigan State games because A) they’re unwatchable and B) no matter how I pick them I’m always on the wrong side. But I also have a new rule to adhere to: Bet every game on the board. Gun to my head, roll with the under no matter what.

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (-4.5)
6:45pm, ESPN

Based on records alone (Oklahoma State 8-4 / Texas A&M 7-5), you wouldn’t imagine Texas A&M being favored by seven. However, when you look at Oklahoma State’s eight wins, who did they beat that’s even remotely impressive? They lost to every team that you’d even consider decent. While Texas A&M doesn’t have any eye-popping wins, either, at least their losses came against quality opponents (LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn & Clemson). There’s no shame in any of those losses (obviously, two of them made the CFB Playoff), and I don’t see seven points being too many in this game against a weak eight-win team in Oklahoma State. I’ll swallow the points and take the Aggies – Ben

The spread has dropped nearly three points from when I first wrote about this until now (game day). You would think the line moving in my favor would make me feel better since I don’t have to cover a touchdown anymore, however, it’s making me a bit nervous that the line has dropped this much. I’m still on the Aggies, but I’m not betting as much as I originally planned – Ben

I love love love the Aggies here. As Ben laid out, they lost to some really good football teams. They got fucking demolished by them, but they’re still top quality opponents. I just think that TAMU cares about this stuff. It’s not the sexiest bowl out there, but that fanbase cares and they paid a shit ton of money to get Jimbo. I think he has these kids motivated. These are the dumbest reasons ever to bet a team but I believe what I believe. I trust the defense and believe that they can at least hinder Chuba Hubbard today. I think Mond does enough to win and cover. – Logan

My first bad beat of the 2019 bowl season. We were all basically texting each other saying how effed we were once A&M went up 10 points – we saw this beat coming. Silver lining… I proceeded to win the next two games this particular night! – Ben

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
USC vs. Iowa (-2)
8pm, Fox Sports 1

I want to bet on this. It’s the evening game on packed slate of Friday bowl games. Yes, I know there’s one more game after this one that I can chase on, but by the time this game kicks off I’ll be a first-time parent, and I’m already pretty damn certain I’m not making it up for the Air Force/Washington State game later this night. Since I’m treating this game as my Friday night cap, I’ll have a play, but I’m just not ready to decide yet as I’m writing this on December 18th – Ben

Ben Update: I am officially a first-time parent, I am going to bet on this game. And I’m not 100 percent sure that this will be the last game I watch tonight. My strategy has been to stay up as late as possible with the baby so that she sleeps the night through, so that Air Force/Washington State game is looking more doable by the minute. But back to Iowa/USC – I’ve decided to take Iowa here. I like USC’s offense, but I can’t get deny this Iowa defense enough to side with the Trojans. If you’re not a fan of having to wait for the very end of the game in order to figure out if you’re going to win or not, this game may not be for you. But if you like a matchup of strength vs. strength that should go down to the wire and you don’t mind sprouting a few extra gray hairs in the process, go ahead and bet on this one. My matchup to watch is USC’s passing offense (avg. 336 yards per game) against Iowa’s pass defense (allows 184 yards per game); and I’m confident enough to swallow the couple of points and take Iowa here – Ben

Iowa Iowa Iowa. The USC players do not care about this game. The USC fanbase does not care about this game. I would expect the crowd in San Diego to be about 70/30 Iowa. Helton has just been given a vote of confidence (I guess?) but I still think he gets fired after this game. Iowa’s defense is really strong. It will travel. These midwest kids get up to play these games against the traditional powerhouses. The Badgers have done it. Nebraska kept it close. I expect Iowa to do the same thing here. Also, keep an eye on the over here. The last few USC bowl games have been absolute shootouts. Either one, USC or Over, your pick. –Logan

Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force (-2.5) vs. Washington State
10:15pm, ESPN

While I may not be awake for this, I’m definitely betting on it and learning about my outcome in the morning. I’m taking Air Force here. Washington State is a great team to watch if you like high-flying offense. Head coach Mike Leach doesn’t believe in or conform to what most consider “balance” on the offensive side of the ball as his team averages under 75 rushing yards per game while throwing for nearly 450 yards per game. Air Force is basically on the opposite end of the spectrum as they throw for just 130 yards per game but run for nearly 300 per game. This game should be back and forth, high scoring, and exciting as hell for those who stay awake for it. I’m siding with Air Force, who went 7-5 against the spread, against WSU who went just 4-8 ATS – Ben

I don’t care what the number is, give me the over. Your wife will be in bed by the time this thing kicks off. Throw in an after dinner pizza, pour yourself a cup of dirty brown liquor, and get drunk while you watch these two teams score a million points. –Logan

December 28

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Iowa State
Noon, ABC

My initial reaction here was Notre Dame, but I actually like some of Iowa State’s wins, and some of their losses to good teams were very close games. While I wouldn’t make this a big play, I’m still leaning Notre Dame minus the points. The matchup I like for Notre Dame here is that ISU throws for 318 yards per game, but Notre Dame’s strength on defense is against the pass, allowing just 163 passing yards per game. Don’t bet the rent, but if you’re a degenerate and want some consistent action throughout the day, I can get behind a small Notre Dame wager – Ben

This game feature two QBs who have thrown for over 3300 yards and 35 total TDs. Somehow the total is only 54.5 points. I love the over in a game that should feature plenty of scoring. As for the side. My companion, Logan, and I always ride with teams who have done good for us. For that reason I am play Iowa St +3. -DJ

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Penn State (-7) vs. Memphis
AT&T Stadium
Noon, ESPN

I’m pumped for this game. It’s one of the top bowl games I’m looking forward to this season. I told myself I was going to bet Memphis in its bowl game, however, the fact that Penn State allows under 100 rushing yards per game and just 14 points per game makes me a little nervous in this matchup. Memphis is balanced on offense and put up over 40 points per game this season, but they may need everything to click for them in this one as Penn State is no slouch offensively, either. I’ll likely make a play on this game, but as of writing this on December 19, I need more time to dig a little deeper – Ben

This game is tough for me because I never know if a big time school is going to get up for a match up like this. Memphis lost their coach but I still believe they will come in fired up wanting to prove they can beat the big conference teams. I am leaning toward Memphis in this game if I had to bet a side. But Ben mentioned Penn States defense which intrigues me. My favorite play is UNDER 60. – DJ

Alright it’s game day so that means it’s time to make an official pick. I like that this spread has increased to seven, so I’m sticking with my original gut feeling and taking the points with Memphis. It won’t be a huge play, but I see the Tigers finding enough success to keep this within a touchdown – Ben

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
LSU (-14) vs. Oklahoma
4pm, ESPN

As of December 14, I have no official pick on this game (but I definitely will). Just saw the over/under point total at 75.5, and while I’m leaning taking the over, you need to average 20 points per quarter in order to reach this total! I’m gonna dive into this one a bit more and then I’ll be back with more thoughts and an official pick – Ben

I’ve had my time to dive into this game a little more, and I’ll be honest, I’m just as torn on game day as I was back in my last post on Dec. 14. It goes against everything I believe in for the semifinals games, but my advice is to sit this one out. Sit back and enjoy this game. During this time, go through your finances and determine what percentage of your total net worth you’re going to wager on Ohio St. in the next game, because I’m really starting to like this play – Ben

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State vs. Clemson (-2.5)
8pm, ESPN

Clemson played one ranked team in the regular season (Texas A&M) before facing their second top-25 team in the ACC Championship in Virginia. Clemson destroyed UVA as we all thought they would, but being favored over Ohio State is a bit of a head scratcher to me. The Buckeyes didn’t have the most difficult schedule this season either, but wins over Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin (twice) dwarf any win Clemson has this season. I wouldn’t make it a huge play, but hopefully this line can get to Clemson -3 and I’ll lay a wager on Ohio State – Ben

Some time has passed since my first post on this game, and as I hinted in my latest writeup for the Oklahoma/LSU game, I’m really starting to like Ohio State here. Every “expert” I’ve seen make a prediction on this game has taken Clemson, which makes me like Ohio State even more. My strategy is to keep checking throughout the day to see if this line gets to Clemson -3, and when/if it does, I’m jumping on the Buckeyes – Ben

December 30

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Western Kentucky (-3.5) vs. Western Michigan
12:30pm, ESPN

I’m leaning Western Kentucky here, but I’d want to move the line to three rather than three and a half. Western Kentucky is allowing just 20 points per game and went 8-4 against the spread this season. The Hilltoppers also finished the year with three straight regular season wins, including a 45-19 victory over Arkansas – not that Arkansas is any good, but hey, it’s an SEC school. I sort of like the under 54.5 point total as well, but for the time being, I’m more confident in Western Kentucky if I can get the line to three – Ben

It’s December 30th. I have had PTO or Holiday for 17 straight days (Working at a college during the holiday is the best). I’ve gambled every single one of those days. My eyes are bloodshot. My gut is rotting from the inside because I’ve basically just consumed pizza and copious amounts of meats and cheeses. I outed my self as a degenerate gambler to my family on Christmas Eve when I lost my mind during BYU/Hawaii. I’ve been in sweatpants longer than any human has ever been in sweatpants. I PLAN TO DO IT ALL AGAIN TODAY. As far as the pick goes, I lean WKU. Western has ties to P.J. Fleck and that guy sucks. I’m 1-0 in betting against coaches I hate this bowl season, so WKU is the pick.-Logan

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (-4.5) vs. Louisville
4pm, ESPN

We’ve got a mess here. Mississippi State’s starting QB Garrett Shrader won’t be playing after suffering facial injuries following a fight with teammate Willie Gay. So while there’s obviously some tension in the locker room, the Bulldogs still feature one of the top RB’s in the SEC in Kylin Hill against a Louisville defense that allows over 210 rushing yards per game. The loss of a starting quarterback is never a good thing, but it may not factor in as much in this game if the Cardinals can’t contain the Bulldogs’ rushing attack. Too much uncertainty in this one for me to make an official play. There’s another game on in this time slot as well, save your money and just bet twice as much in the Cal/Illinois game – Ben

Louisville has been a solid dog all season long. They’ve been one of my best bets of the season, but the only qualification to be a Logan Best Bet is to win me more then they’ve lost me. Mississippi State is just a colossal disappointment and clearly have internal issues. I think they couldn’t give two shits about being in Nashville to play a middling bowl game. Louisville however does care. In their first season under a new head coach who is trying to change the culture, they’ve gone from 2 wins last season to 7 this season. Louisville has some speed offensively that can match the SEC, but it really depends on if they can take care of the football. I lean Louisville and may even go money-line. Also, can anyone explain why the Louisville Cardinal has teeth? -Logan

Louisville is another team that has been a dog money maker for me this year. I don’t even need to study this. It’s all about loyalty. Give me L’Ville plus the points – DJ

Redbox Bowl
California (-6.5) vs. Illinois
4pm, FOX

Illinois maxed out in the middle of the season, reeling off four straight wins including victories over Wisconsin and Michigan State. However, the final two weeks of the regular season didn’t go so well for the Fighting Illini as they scored just 10 points in both of their final games in losses to Iowa and Northwestern. Cal is definitely the hotter team heading into this game. The Golden Bears won their final two games against Stanford and UCLA, and now find themselves as six and a half point favorites in the Redbox Bowl. Does anyone even use Redbox anymore? Didn’t Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime sort of kill Redbox the same way they killed Blockbuster? Regardless, I think this will be a close game, also an ugly game, and I’m leaning towards either a small play on Cal or the under 43.5 point total. Since I told you to pass on the other game in this time slot, I’ve gotta give you a pick here, so go ahead and take the under. Also, go hit up a Redbox so that they don’t go out of business – Ben

Cal flew out of the gates this college football season with some impressive wins, but some QB injuries derailed their season a bit. They have a legit defense that has been pretty stout for most of the season. I trust nothing Illinois does. The only reason they win games or cover is because teams completely under-estimate them. Yes I am still upset they beat Wisconsin. Evan Weaver is gonna be playing on Sundays. I just feel like I can trust the Cal D more than anything else in this game. Hell they may even score. And they may have to; the Cal offense only averages like 20 points a game or something. I’ve got Illinois on my never-bets board because…they’re Illinois, but man catching 6 and the hook is very enticing. Ah screw it, Cal -6.5. -Logan

Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida (-14) vs. Virginia
8pm, ESPN

I feel like I’m letting you down with my take on this game. As a Florida Gators fan, I have a really good feel for this team. However, as a person who doesn’t see a lot of ACC football, I don’t have a great feel for Virginia. I can tell you that 14 points seems fairly high for the Gators. They don’t run the ball with much success as they had a single rusher top 100 yards just one time this season, and that was in large part due to an 88-yard Lamical Perine touchdown against Auburn. However, Kyle Trask definitely sparked the passing offense once Felipe Franks went down earlier in the season, and the Gators won’t shy away from passing against this Virginia defense that’s currently allowing 230 passing yards per game. As for Virginia, I’m not really impressed by any of its wins this season. The Cavaliers beat one ranked team (Virginia Tech, 39-30) but followed it up with a 62-17 thumping against Clemson in the ACC Championship game. They do have an exciting dual-threat QB in Bryce Perkins, but it’ll be interesting to see how he performs against the speed of this Gator’s defense. One thing to keep in mind is that the Gators top cornerback, CJ Hendersen, is skipping this game to prepare for the 2020 NFL Draft. So while I’m not super confident in this game, and I wouldn’t advise a large wager, I would recommend making a small play on Florida – Ben

I am not concerned about talent level. I know Florida’s talent far outweighs Virginia’s. I personally don’t think Virginia is a very good football team. I am concerned about if Florida can get up to play this game. The Gator defense is top ten. They have weapons offensively. Trask has been fine. I’m gonna bite the bullet and hope that Mullen can get the boys up to play. Florida -14. -Logan

In case you’re able to do player prop bets, my favorite bet here is the Under on Lamical Perine’s rushing total of 46.5 yards. As I mentioned before, Florida doesn’t run the ball well, and Perine hasn’t seen double-digit carries in any of his last four games. In fact, he only saw four carries in each of his last three games and seven carries in the game prior – Ben

December 31

Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech (-2.5) vs. Kentucky
Noon, ESPN

This game features two teams who pride themselves on defense. Both have been solid teams ATS the spread (Michael Scott style) because of those defenses. The side scares me here because I think it might come down to who can create more turnovers and get a defensive score. With the defenses in mind, I am leaning UNDER 47.5 here. I am holding on hope that the score is 10-10 in the 4th quarter – DJ

I actually have Kentucky winning this game outright. So not only should you take any points you can get in one bet, also invest a little on that money line. I’m thinking Kentucky wins this game by three to seven points – Ben

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Florida State vs. Arizona State (-3.5)
2pm, CBS

I never like covering the hook, but given the current state of Florida State Football, I’m not too concerned (wrote this when it was ASU -3.5). Additionally, I’ll give you a couple of guys to keep an eye on in this game for Arizona State. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels and senior wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk have had chemistry all season resulting in one of the top QB/WR duos in the Pac-12. Daniels has been efficient and protective of the ball this season throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. Aiyuk has been on the receiving end of nearly 1,200 of those receiving yards and has found the end zone eight times. He’s also the team’s big-play option averaging over 18 yards per catch. Give me Herm and the Sun Devils – Ben

Update: Brandon Aiyuk has announced he’ll be skipping the bowl game in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Sucks for us as fans, but hey, stay healthy and get that bag (I think this is the new cool way of telling someone to go get paid). I still like ASU here, just not as confident as I was before – Ben

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy (-3) vs. Kansas State
3:45pm, ESPN

I honestly can’t get far enough away from this game. I started out liking Navy, then I switched to the Over. Then I started liking KSU, and then I was contemplating the under. So all this means is I’m saving up and betting BIG on Wyoming/Georgia State – Ben

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Wyoming (-7) vs. Georgia State
4:30pm, CBS Sports Network

Alright maybe I’m not going BIG like I said in the writeup for the game before, but Wyoming is one of my favorite plays this bowl season. Wyoming can’t pass, they don’t even throw for 130 yards per game. However, Wyoming’s calling is the run game where they average nearly 210 yards per game on the ground. Georgia State’s weakness? Run defense. They give up over 210 rushing yards per game and have allowed a staggering 36 points per game. I like Wyoming getting it done on the ground in this one, and finding success at limiting Georgia State with their defense that allows just 18 points per game. I’ll swallow the points and take Wyoming – Ben

Valero Alamo Bowl
Utah (-7) vs. Texas
7:30pm, ESPN

I need more time here. Going to wait to see how the day plays out and then make my wager before this game starts. Check back – Ben

Stop thinking Ben. The only game I have lost betting on Utah was that fraud Oregon game. Utah may very will have the best defense in all of college football. I have a hard time seeing how Texas scores. On offense they are like the Titans. They know what they want to do then they execute. I have stayed up many nights watching Utah win me money and turned into a Utah fan. 7 points is not nearly enough. Bet your next paycheck on Utah. – DJ

January 1

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Alabama (-7)
1pm, ABC

I could never bring myself to bet Michigan against a power house like Alabama. They lost to both Wisconsin and Ohio st by a million this year. Michigan just doesn’t show up in big games. I will happily lay the 7 with Alabama. They will win by three scores. – DJ

Like DJ, I couldn’t imagine betting on Michigan in this one. However, the last time we saw Bama, they allowed 48 points in a loss to Auburn. And with this being one of the only years the Crimson Tide hasn’t made the College Football Playoff, you have to question their motivation in this game. Seven points is too much against a New Year’s Day opponent, and since I can’t recommend a play on Michigan, I’ve gotta pass – Ben

Outback Bowl
Minnesota vs. Auburn (-7)
1pm, ESPN

I don’t need to sit here and tell you that Auburn is a good team. All three of their losses came against top-10 teams (Florida, LSU and Georgia), and the last time we saw them in action, they knocked off a Tua-less Bama squad, 48-45. However, while Bo Nix had his moments in his freshman season, he completed less than 50 percent of his passes against top-25 teams while throwing just one more touchdown than interceptions (7 TD, 6 INT) in these games. The Golden Gophers had a disappointing end to their season – losing two of their last three after starting the season 9-0 – but were pretty solid defensively throughout the season allowing under 200 passing yards per game. I think seven points is too many in this game – give me the points and the Gophers – Ben

Another lopsided SEC vs Big Ten match up. People consider Minnesota’s defense good but their big ten opponents throughout the season can inflate any team stats. Their best defender is sitting out this game preparing for the NFL. Auburn is coming off an exciting game against Alabama which proves this team can score. Auburn has dominated as favorites going 10-2 in their last 12 as favorites. Lay the 7 points again. – DJ

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Oregon vs. Wisconsin (-2.5)
5pm, ESPN

I hate Wisconsin. Always have. This pick is going to be bias. Wisconsin will struggle to move the ball against a stout Oregon defense. At the same time Oregon has one of the best QB’s in college football who is trying to increase his draft stock, in Justin Herbert. Wisconsin’s defense has been awfully susceptible as of late. I like Oregon to win this game straight up. Would heavily consider under 51 as well. – DJ

Another strength vs. strength matchup as the Badgers’ rushing offense (avg. 240 yards per game) goes up against the Ducks’ rushing defense (avg. 106 yards per game). I have no horse, duck or badger in this one, so unlike DJ, my take should be unbiased. However, I like his idea on the under 52 point total play. This game has 24-21 written all over it, I’m just not sure which team will have the 24. So for that reason, I’m sticking with the under – Ben

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia (-4.5) vs. Baylor
8:45pm, ESPN

Baylor is on Logan and I’s proverb “list.” That means they have fucked us over one too many times. If I bet them they looks like shit. If I bet against them they fuck me. I have no idea what to do. My gut tells me Baylor but check back later. – DJ

We’ve seen Georgia go from seven and a half point favorites to four and a half point favorites. The Bulldogs have numerous players missing this game for various reasons, and as a team with final four aspirations, setting for this game for the second straight year seems a bit underwhelming. Baylor, on the other hand, went 11-2 this year after winning just one game two years ago. Their head coach is getting looks at the professional level, but he’s deflected everything so far, keeping this game as the priority. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions in regards to this game. I wish I would have locked into Baylor sooner, but I’ve gotta take them here against a depleted Georgia unit – Ben

January 2

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Boston College vs. Cincinnati (-7.5)
3pm, ESPN

This game is… interesting. You’ve got Cincinnati that has lost four of its last five games against the spread as favorites, against a Boston College team that has had ups and downs throughout the season, fired its head coach, and will be playing without its leading rusher in AJ Dillon. I like Cincinnati here, but the hook scares me. I’d recommend passing on this game, however, if you really want to gamble since there’s only two games today (like I probably will), I’d try to get this line to Cin -7 and take the Bearcats – Ben

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Indiana vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
7pm, ESPN

This line has went from Tennessee favored by one and a half, to the Volunteers being favored by three and a half. I already liked Indiana here, now I like the Hoosiers even more getting three and the hook. The money line is enticing with this game at +145, so if you’ve had a nice bowl season and have some extra cash to throw around, I’d recommend a ML play. However, I really like getting three and a half points here against a Tennessee squad, who despite winning their last five games, haven’t looked all that impressive. Indiana has lost two of its last three games, but those two losses came to Michigan and Penn State, much high quality opponents than what Tennessee has been beating up on recently – Ben

January 3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (-10) vs. Nevada
3:30pm, ESPN

Everyone I’ve seen and everything I’ve read is all about Ohio. Nevada is missing a lot of players for this game, so there’s no way I’d take them here. Nevada already struggles defensively, allowing 32 points per game, and now they face an Ohio team that puts up nearly 35 per game. Ohio is also balanced offensively, averaging over 200 rush and pass yards per game, and I think they’ll likely overwhelm Nevada in this one. I’m swallowing the 10 points and taking Ohio – Ben

Well this was a shitty loss. Hope you locked in Ohio while they were eight-point favorites rather than 10 – Ben

January 4

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane (-7)
11:30am, ESPN

They named this bowl game incorrectly – it should be called the Degenerate Gamblers Bowl. Who the hell is betting on this? I’ve dug into this game for longer than I care to share, and I can honestly tell you I still don’t know what I like. I sort of like the under since both of these teams have been nailing unders recently, but under bets haven’t been kind to me this bowl season, so I’m passing on that. Here’s my official take – there’s a guy I’ve trusted for years with college football betting and he likes Tulane. So if you feel the urge to do some Saturday morning betting, go ahead and take Tulane – Ben

January 6

LendingTree Bowl
Louisiana (-14) vs. Miami (Ohio)
7:30pm, ESPN

It’s January 9 and I’m just writing about this now. I want to apologize for at least not saying that I didn’t have a play on it, but my paternity leave expired and I didn’t even get a chance to look at this game since my time of sleeping at various times throughout the day and gambling on every single bowl game unfortunately came to an end. Time to focus on the National Championship – Ben

January 13

College Football Playoff National Championship
LSU (-5.5) vs. Clemson

8pm, ESPN

Not an official pick yet, but honestly, I expected LSU to be favored by double digits whether they played Ohio State or Clemson. I’ll be back with more info as I continue to dive deeper into this one, but based on what I anticipated the spread being, my early lean is LSU – Ben

It’s now Sunday night, just before the Packers/Seahawks game, and I’m 0-3 ATS so far in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Let’s just say my betting confidence is shook… to say the least. So now I’m not feeling quite as confident in swallowing 5.5 points with LSU. Everyone knows this stat, but the fact Clemson hasn’t lost with Trevor Lawrence as its starting quarterback is really getting in my head. Also, the way Clemson handled being down against Ohio State proved the Tigers don’t necessarily need to play with a lead in order to outright win this game. A couple quick nerdy stats for ya – Clemson is 11-3 ATS this season while LSU is 9-4-1. Both teams are scoring right around 45 per game, while LSU allows 21 and Clemson is killing it on defense allowing just 11 points per game. In my opinion, LSU’s offense still looks too unstoppable right now so I can’t completely get on the Clemson side, so for that reason, I’m sticking with LSU – Ben

Every single person wants to get cute every single game against LSU. Every LSU game I wonder “Why people are picking against them?” You don’t get rich betting against LSU. Joe Burrow seems to be the most sure thing since Andrew Luck. Don’t get cute. I have said it 100 times before and I will say it again. LSU by 100 (20). This is easy. Put your paycheck on it. – DJ

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