Thanks to a fourth-quarter collapse by the Panthers and going against my own advice to not bet on the Jaguars again this season, I turned in a 1-2 performance last week and dropped one more unit bringing my year-to-date record to 16-19-1, minus 7 units.
I’ve learned my lesson… again. ABSOLUTELY NO BETTING ON THE JAGUARS FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2018. And with that said, let’s take a look into which teams will be the reason my bank account drops this week.
Week 12 Results: 1-2; -1 unit
Year-to-Date Results: 16-19-1; -7 units
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
If you listened to our 2018 NFL Season Predictions Podcast from back in September, you’d know that I’m a big fan of the Chargers this season. However, the Steelers coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Broncos last week and coming home to face a quality opponent in the Chargers leads me to believe they’ll be motivated to get this win with a look good in the process.
Despite being a fan of the Chargers and believing they can definitely make a run at claiming the AFC this season, take a look at the quality of teams they’ve beat compared to those they’ve lost to.
Wins: Bills, 49ers, Raiders (twice), Browns, Titans, Seahawks and Cardinals
Losses: Chiefs, Rams and Broncos
What I’m trying to say here is that they’ve basically been beating up on lesser teams while falling short the majority of the times they face a quality opponent.
And although the Steelers just lost to a common opponent (Denver), keep in mind they had won six straight games prior to last week and were 5-0-1 against the spread in the process.
Both of these offenses have been on point this season, putting up over 400 yards per game, so we should all be happy about the fact that this game was flexed to Sunday night; but I’m going to side with the home team in this one. Give me the Steelers for 2 units.
New York Jets +9 @ Tennessee Titans
I’ll be the first to admit that this bet makes me a little nervous since the Jets have some well-documented scoring issues. Over their last four games, the Jets are averaging less than 10 points per game and have lost all of these games both straight up and against the spread.
But the Titans have problems of their own. They’ve lost both of their last two games straight up and against the spread, and are averaging just 13 points over this span.
Tennessee has been playing with the minds of gamblers all season. They’ve made a habit of going on both winning and losing streaks throughout the season, causing bettors to believe in them only to be letdown with underwhelming performances the next couple of weeks.
The bottom line here for me is the fact that I don’t trust an inconsistent team to win by double digits against anyone. Here’s a fun fact for those brave enough to keep reading after they found out I’m betting on the Jets this week. The Titans have been favored just one time this season prior to this week – they proceeded to lose that game straight up to the Bills.
There’s just too many question marks with the Titans for me right now to believe they can win a game with ease. I’ll take the road dog for 2 units.
Carolina Panthers -3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m going back down the gambling road with Carolina despite the Panthers failing me last week against the Seahawks. The good news? This week’s opponent, Tampa Bay, is no where near the quality of a team that Seattle is.
Every time I bet on the Panthers I talk about how they are matchup proof. Well this week it literally doesn’t matter as the Buccaneers are terrible on defense. They allow around 115 yards per game on the ground and nearly 300 through the air, making them the 27th-ranked team in total yards allowed per game.
The trendy thing this season has been to bet against Tampa Bay, but in all fairness, it’s been warranted as the Bucs have won just one of their last four games against the spread – and that game came against the 49ers, which I’m putting zero stock into.
Jameis Winston always has that potential for a solid performance, if he’s on his game, but I’m willing to bet he’s more likely in store for a train wreck game as that’s been more common this season. I’m going to stick with Carolina this week and take the Panthers for 2 units.
Be sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast for more gambling advice and our picks for each game this week in the NFL!