Top 3 to Bet: NFL Week 11 Gambling Picks

We’re starting to heat up a little bit now that we’ve hit double-digit weeks into the 2018 NFL season. I’ve now gone 2-1 both of the last two weeks and now just within one game of the .500 mark for the season.

Two favorites and an over on the point total comprise my plays this week as I’m going to give two-team teasers a little bit of a break after the Jets embarrassed everyone that bet on them last week.

The yearly goal remains to hit 57 percent of my bets this year, so it’s time to keep the winning streak alive. Let’s dabble into some gambling advice for the week.

 

Week 10 Results: 2-1; +1 unit
Year-To-Date Results: 14-15-1; -5 units

 

Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys

I really believe that last week’s performance for both of these teams is helping influence the point spread in my favor this week. You’ve got the Falcons coming off an embarrassing loss on the road to the Browns while the Cowboys knocked off last year’s Super Bowl champions in front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football.

The public will typically base their bets off what they’ve seen most recently, and that’s going to help keep this line around a field goal in favor of Atlanta. As long as this line stays at or below three points, I’m all in on the Falcons this week.

Both teams are under performing this season at 4-5 and both have just three wins to this point against the spread. But in a situation like this, I’m a big fan of taking the home team – who I believe is clearly the better team – with an offense that scores around 30 points per game at home this season.

Also keep in mind that the Falcons had won three games in a row before last week’s upset to the Browns. Plus we’ve been seeing the Matt Ryan of two years ago so far this season as he’s already totaled over 3,000 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

Image result for matt ryan

To be fair to those who side with Dallas in this game, the Falcons are a mess defensively. They allow nearly 30 points and over 120 rushing yards per game, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Zeke Elliott have a nice statistical performance this week.

But if the matchup comes down to Dallas’ run game and Atlanta’s pass game, I’m siding with the Falcons. Give me the Dirty Birds for 2 units

 

 

Over Point Total 54.5: Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

If it wasn’t for the Monday night matchup between the Chiefs and the Rams, this would be the game I’m most looking forward to this weekend as I think it has some great back-and-forth potential.

The Eagles are definitely not as good as they were last year, and are not on the same level as the Saints right now, but I still believe they are the best team in the NFC East and will give the Saints a run on Sunday.

We talked in our weekly daily fantasy sports preview podcast about how Carson Wentz has put up double-digit touchdowns in each game he’s played in besides his first game back, and his chemistry with Zach Ertz hasn’t skipped a beat as they connected 14 times last week for 145 yards and two touchdowns.

Image result for zach ertz carson wentz

While the Eagles’ offense has the potential to put up big numbers, the Saints’ offense has been the poster child for elite offenses this season. The Saints average nearly 37 points per game and have scored 51, 45 and 30 points in their last three games.

I’m picking the Saints to win this game outright as they’ve been the hottest and most consistent team we’ve seen in the league. Since somehow losing week 1 to Tampa Bay, New Orleans has won eight straight and have been racking up the points in the process.

A blowout is certainly possible in any game involving the Saints, but I don’t see it happening in this one. I’m predicting a Saints win, 35-31, meaning an easy over on the 54.5 point total. I’ll take it for 2 units.

 

Houston Texans -3 @ Washington Redskins

If you follow along weekly to this article you’ll know that this is the third straight week I’ve bet on a game involving the Redskins. What should that tell you? It means I have a beat on this team as I’m 2-0 so far!

The Redskins’ defense came back to life last week allowing just three points to a potentially high-scoring Buccaneers’ offense after getting torched for 38 the week prior by Atlanta. But the issue with Washington isn’t typically the defense, it’s the lackluster offense.

Here is a stat that should tell you everything you need to know about the Redskins’ offense heading into this game – quarterback Alex Smith has thrown for exactly 178 yards in three of his last four games.

Image result for alex smith redskins

While that stat is crazy in itself, the fact that he’s struggling to toss for over 200 yards with the way the NFL is currently setup for offenses to succeed is alarming. The Redskins are just 26th in total offense, 25th in passing, and 27th in scoring averaging less than 20 points per game.

Now let’s take a look at Houston.

Since beginning the year 0-3, the Texans have now won six in a row straight up and are 4-1-1 against the spread in the process. Not only is this team coming off their bye week, but we’ve also seen quarterback Deshaun Watson drastically cut down on his turnovers.

Last year’s rookie phenom threw seven interceptions in the first six games of this season, but has now gone three games in a row without a turnover and has tossed eight touchdowns during that time span.

I said last week that I don’t believe Washington is a playoff-worth team this season and I expect the Redskins’ decline to begin soon. On the other hand, the Texans lead a jumbled AFC South and I expect them to be in the mix when it’s time to start deciding playoff teams. These teams will show their true colors this week, give me the Texans for 1 unit.

 

Be sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast for more gambling advice and our picks for each game this week in the NFL!

Ben Morgan is a co-host and blogger for the Loaded Box Podcast. Check out his article archive and find more from the Loaded Box on Twitter & Facebook

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