Risers and Fallers: Dynasty Stock Watch

Written by Mikey Ostrowski

I started my monthly stock risers in February and man… has a lot changed this month. Should we really be surprised though? Between free agency, trading and NFL Draft rumors, it’s the most volatile time for the dynasty stock of nearly every player out there. I’ll be going through a handful of players that have been on the rise, as well as some players whose value took a bit of a dip over the month of March.

QB Rankings
RB Rankings
WR Rankings
TE Rankings

Quarterbacks on the rise…

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Danny Dimes is on the rise and there is no secret to that. The team recently signed Kenny Golladay to a long-term deal, which will finally provide Jones a legitimate WR1, arguably for the first time in his NFL career. Jones has a lot to prove ahead of his third year as a pro, especially after having a fairly disappointing 2020 season. The addition of Golladay and the return of Saquon Barkley is an undeniable improvement from what Jones had to work with last year. Many think he can make the third-year jump that we saw in Josh Allen… I mean, I like Jones, but let’s temper those expectations a little bit guys.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Detroit Lions place QB Matthew Stafford on Reserve/COVID-19 list

We knew that Stafford’s value would climb once he left Detroit so it’s no surprise that LA offers him a legitimate chance at being a fantasy QB1 in 2021. I know that this is old news at this point, but you know what’s not old news? DeSean Jackson coming to town. Between him and emerging rookie Van Jefferson, Stafford will be able to showcase his arm strength and will have a total arsenal of viable weapons at his disposal. While his stock is on the rise, I’d honestly consider him as a buy-low option. People are excited about his new situation, but I don’t think we realize just how good he’s going to be with that team. If you need to grab a quarterback, he’s a great guy to go after.

Quarterbacks falling…

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

The Titans recently signed Josh Reynolds but I don’t think that really means much. Since the 2020 season ended, the Titans have lost both Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. I’d imagine them to spend high draft capital on a rookie receiver in April’s draft, but Tannehill may see a downtick in production while the new receivers get acclimated to the system. On the bright side, if you have AJ Brown you can start to get excited about the roughly 200,000 targets he may see (I think that’s only a slight exaggeration).

Alex Smith, Free Agent

A lot of people (myself included) thought he might land as a starter somewhere… However, with how free agency has gone, there’s not really any starting positions left for him to fill. Recent reports have potentially linked him to Houston, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one. Smith didn’t have very much value heading into the offseason, but that value is practically non-existent these days.

20% off & free shipping with promo code: LOADED

Running Backs on the rise…

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

This one confused me. Kenyan Drake was done with Arizona after the 2020 season and there were never any talks to extend a contract. Edmonds’ perceived value sky rocketed the second Drake put ink to paper in Las Vegas. As of now, Edmonds is the RB1 in Arizona, but most of us expect them to grab one of the top-three backs available in the NFL Draft. I was shouting from the rooftops to buy low on Edmonds over the last one and a half years… but the time has finally come for me to say; sell high on Edmonds.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Gordon has quietly been one of the biggest winners of free agency. Phillip Lindsay has left Denver to play for Houston, and the only person they brought in to compete with Gordon is Mike Boone. Between him and Royce Freeman, I’d imagine Gordon to take upwards of a 70% to 80% share of the backfield snaps for Denver in 2021. He’s not the stud he was a few years ago, but there are still plenty of days of production ahead of him. He’s an incredibly solid RB2 based off of volume alone and a great option to buy low on at the moment.

Running Backs falling…

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders running back Josh Jacobs could prove to be an elite fantasy option

Yeah… I don’t know what the Raiders are thinking either. They went out and signed Drake and it’s left us all scratching our heads. Jacobs’ volume will undoubtedly regress, and the hopes we had for him to get more involved in the passing game seem to get smaller and smaller. His value is the lowest it has been since he entered the league and is a guy that I’d consider moving on from if someone offers you a “pre-Drake value” type of trade offer.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

Dillon will still see an uptick in production with Jamaal Williams out of town, but with Green Bay retaining Aaron Jones, well, the dream of Dillon taking over the lead-down back is all but lost. I’d imagine Dillon will have his fair share of carries, but Jones will undoubtedly be their go-to on third downs and will take a majority of the early-down and goal-line snaps as well. I hope you didn’t buy-high on Dillon this offseason.

Wide Receivers on the rise…

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants

Personally, I think Golladay’s real value hasn’t changed… but people were losing their minds over this signing on Twitter. In my opinion, I liked Golladay more when he had Stafford throwing him the ball. I don’t think Jones is a massive downgrade, but I do feel that this was a better “real life” signing than it was for fantasy. If I have Golladay on my dynasty roster, I’m shopping him.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

The stats don't lie — Terry McLaurin is a top-5 receiver in the NFL

Terry has been balling out with backup quarterbacks throughout his young career. He now gets a good-enough QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and has an excellent complimentary receiver in Curtis Samuel. Some pressure should be taken off of McLaurin in the 2021 season, which leads me to believe that we could see even better numbers from him moving forward. Even with Samuel in the lineup, his 134 targets from 2020 seem highly repeatable in this offense, so I’m still expecting the world from McLaurin. He can definitely be treated as a low-end WR1 for dynasty.

Wide Receivers falling…

Will Fuller, Miami Dolphins

It really depends on who you ask, but Fuller’s dynasty stock is all over the place. Some people have crowned him as Miami’s WR1, while others complain that he’ll fall off due to Tua Tagovailoa’s noodle arm. Me? I’m right in the middle. I can see the pros and the cons for Fuller landing in Miami, but I definitely think there were better landing spots for him. He won’t be able to return the value that he had with Deshaun Watson, but he’s still a solid-enough option for fantasy. I’d say his perceived value has gone down a bit, but depending on who has him in your league, he may be a tough guy to buy.

Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills

This one is only temporary, but the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders will keep Davis lower on the pecking order. Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley were already firmly ahead of Davis on the depth chart and I believe Sanders will be the WR3 for Josh Allen in 2021. This seems like a good time to buy low on Davis, as there’s a real shot he could catapult himself into the team’s WR2 role in a couple of seasons. The hype on Davis has cooled off, but he is a sneaky-talented receiver that could offer some upside down the road (just don’t break the bank on him, please).

Tight Ends on the rise…

Dan Arnold, Carolina Panthers

Report: Former Cardinals TE Dan Arnold signs with Panthers

Arnold is a free agent in a lot of leagues out there – so use a depth spot on him ASAP. It would not surprise me if Carolina drafted a day-two tight end at the end of April, but if they don’t, Arnold could have some major appeal in 2021. He’ll factor in immediately as the TE1 for the team and should fit the offense incredibly well. I’m not saying that he’s going to post massive numbers, but don’t be surprised if he’s in the low-end TE1 mix by the mid point of the season.

Tight Ends falling…

Jonnu Smith + Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

I was so excited to see where both of these guys went (I’m still salty that neither landed in Carolina) and I’ve gotta say… I am not pumped with the results. Both of these guys were in my top-12 dynasty tight end rankings, but have since been trending in the wrong direction. Cam Newton loves a good tight end, but I’m not entirely sure he can support two of them after only throwing eight touchdowns in 2020. I think this will become one of those situations where a tight end in New England will always pop off, but it’ll be a guessing game every Sunday morning to figure out which one is going to be the one to do it. There’s definitely upside with both of them being on the field at once, but there’s also an extreme level of volatility. Either one of them would’ve been an unquestioned TE1 in New England, but having them both land there is a big red flag for consistency.

Am I too tough on some of these guys? Too easy? Maybe, but let’s face it, my rankings will look completely different by the time the season actually starts. If you’ve read this article, chances are you’re as starved for football as I am. Regardless, I always have fun forming my monthly rankings and I hope you enjoyed this piece.

Feel free to check out all of my rankings and hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or just want to have any sort of conversation about dynasty, redraft… tequila maybe? 

Be sure to check out our brand new YouTube Channel and take a look at our most recent videos. We’ve recently taken a look at some of the biggest values in the NFC and the AFC based on current ADP’s in recent start-up drafts.

Mikey Ostrowski is a blogger for the Loaded Box Podcast. Check out his article archive and find more from the Loaded Box on Twitter & Facebook

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: