Last week didn’t go as planned. I followed up my winning week with a 1-2 performance and dropped four units in the process.
A new strategy is being utilized this week as two of my three picks are bets on the point total, so hopefully this helps get us back on the right track as the pursuit to figure out these teams never ends.
Don’t lose the faith, just asked for a raise at work and jump right back into sewer with us as we get you set with the top bets for Week 9 of the 2018 NFL Season.
Week 8 Results: 1-2; -4 units
Year-to-Date Results: 10-13-1; -8 units
Point Total Over 51.5: Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
The point total of this game started at 53, so keep an eye on the weather this time of the year as you don’t want to mess around with betting overs in the event there is going to be a massive snow or wind storm.
We all know the Chiefs can score in bunches, averaging a league-best 36 points per game. Adding to the beauty of the Chiefs ability to score is the recent funk the Cleveland Browns find themselves in having allowed 32 ppg over their last three games.
Offensively, we may see a new-look Browns’ offense this week after the team made some necessary changes, firing both head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. I believe the change in leadership will create some simplicity in the offense, which could benefit a rookie quarterback like Baker Mayfield.
While Cleveland’s defense isn’t quite as bad as the stats would show, I don’t believe they’ll have much success slowing down this Patrick Mahomes led offense as I see the Chiefs scoring around their average while the Browns would hang around 24-28 points in this game. I’m taking the over on the 51.5 point total for 2 units.
Point Total Over 47.5: Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins
My original thought on this game was to take the Falcons +2, but after diving a little deeper into it, my play is going to be over the point total of 47.5.
Despite featuring an offense that scores over 27 ppg, Atlanta is just 3-4 this season and is yet to win a game on the road. And while their 27 points scored per game puts them 11th in the NFL in that category, the Falcons are third-to-last in points allowed per game giving up 30 per contest.
Washington on the other hand is allowing just 19 ppg, and less than 16 over the course of its last three games. While these stats are impressive and the Redskins’ defense is starting to garner some national attention, keep in mind their last three games were against the Giants, Cowboys and Panthers. While I don’t mind the Panthers most weeks, the others offenses mentioned are not on the same level as the Falcons.
The over play in this game goes against the recent trend of Redskins’ games as Washington has won its last three games both straight up and against the spread, and all three games stayed under their respective point totals. However, this game feels like it’ll be more of a shootout than the last few Redskins’ games. The Falcons are coming off their BYE week so they should be prepared for this Redskins defense, and I believe Washington has the ability to score points against this below-average defense. I’m taking the over for 2 units.
Green Bay Packers +5.5 @ New England Patriots
I wanted to make it a clean sweep and bet the over in this game as well since I’m predicting a back-and-forth game with little success found on the defensive side of the ball for either team, but I feel more comfortable with the Packers +5.5.
Green Bay is just 3-3-1 this season and the entire NFC North is separated by just a game as the Bears have unexpectedly worked their way to the top of the division despite most believing the division would come down to the Packers and Vikings. It feels too early to call this game a must win, but there’s an argument to be made that Green Bay really needs this game in order to compete for a spot in the playoffs in the superior conference – especially after losing to the Rams last week the way they did.
The Patriots sit 6-2 after their shaky start to the season, and there’s absolutely no team in the AFC East that will push them for the division once again in 2018. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t take this game as seriously as the Packers, or that they don’t want it just as bad, but there’s definitely more of a sense of desperation for the Packers at this point in the season.
I’m not a huge fan of betting against Tom Brady and the Patriot at home in a prime-time game, but this game feels very similar to the Sunday-night game we saw earlier this season between the Patriots and Chiefs, which finished 43-40 in favor of New England.
So while we may not see an outright win for Green Bay, I’m willing to take my chances with a pissed off Aaron Rodgers in a game where the Packers basically need to stay within a touchdown. I’m taking the Packers for 2 units.
Looking for more against the spread picks and advice? Check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast as we give our predictions for each game on the schedule for Week 9