Despite a 1-2 record last week, the results turned out to be a wash after winning my 2-unit game but losing both 1-unit plays.
However, this week I’m feeling more confident in my picks as the number of units being put in play is jumping from four to nine. So pay close attention because these picks are coming with a money-back guarantee.
Wait, you don’t pay for these picks to begin with, so maybe just follow this week and get the winners while they’re still free. Let’s gamble!
Week 5 results: 1-2; +0 units
Year-to-date results: 6-9; -5 units
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ Dallas Cowboys
When you have two teams with inconsistent and ineffective offenses playing each other give me the one that has the elite defense, especially when the spread is less than 3.5. It’s pretty sad when the most popular thing about the Dallas Cowboys this year is Dez Bryant’s tweets following a loss.
Despite the fact that Zeke Elliott leads the NFL with 480 rushing yards there is really nothing to get excited about regarding the remainder of the Cowboys’ offense. Dallas is third to last in the NFL in passing yards per game and Dak Prescott has thrown just five touchdowns through the first five weeks of the season.
If the Jaguars can keep Elliott from having a monster game they should have no issues winning by more than a field goal. The Cowboys’ defense allowed over 130 rushing yards in three of their last four games, and last week they failed against the pass as well allowing Deshaun Watson to throw for nearly 400 yards.
Injuries have continued to hinder the Cowboys’ offensive line, they have no weapons on the outside to threaten opposing team’s defenses, and their quarterback isn’t nearly good enough to carry a struggling team with a lack of playmakers. I see these issues continuing throughout the year, but more importantly, the issues will definitely be highlighted this week against the Jaguars. I’m taking Jacksonville for 4 units as my biggest play of the week.
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My reasoning for this pick is fairly simple. I think Atlanta is a better team, they are at home – where they play much better – and the spread is less than 3.5 points.
The Falcons are just 1-4 both straight up and against the spread, they allow over 32 points per game, and are rushing for less than 90 yards per game. However, the strong point of the Falcons’ offense this year has been the pass game, and that’s been Tampa Bay’s biggest defensive weakness as the Buccaneers rank dead last against the pass, allowing nearly 360 passing yards per game.
Let’s go back to the home/road stats real quick. The good news for the betting crowd is this is a home game for the Falcons where they average nearly 35 points per game. They’ve had no issues getting it done at home, rather their offensive woes have come on the road where they currently post just 15 points per game.
Despite the 1-4 record and lacking/injured defense, I’ll take the Falcons over the Bucs for 3 units this week.
Minnesota Vikings -10 vs Arizona Cardinals
The Vikings are a team I’m predicting to go on a little run after knocking off the Eagles last week. They are 10-point favorites at home against the Cardinals this week and then get the New York Jets; so basically two teams they’ll be around double-digit favorites against.
Prior to beating San Francisco last week, the Cardinals were only averaging 9 points per game for the season. Yes they scored 28 last week, but take a deeper look into their scoring drives and you’ll feel fairly underwhelmed.
One of their touchdowns came via the defense. Their first touchdown drive was a one-play, 75-yard TD. Their second offensive TD was a 4-play, 18-yard drive. The drive they kicked their field goal on they actually had -9 yards (yes, negative yards), and their last touchdown drive – likely their most impressive of the game – was only five plays for 26 yards. This offense is not sustaining drives, and if they get down early to the Vikings it will make them one dimensional and even less effective.
We all know about the Vikings and their ability to find success through the air, and while it would be nice to see them produce more on the ground, what better team to face than the Cardinals who are currently allowing over 140 rushing yards per game.
Despite the double-digit spread, give me the Vikings for 2 units.
For a complete NFL Week 6 preview, but sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast as the guys discuss their against the spread gambling picks as well as provide their daily fantasy sports bargains and stacks of the week!