Top 3 to Bet: NFL Week 3 Against the Spread Picks

Finished 2-1 last week for the second straight week, bringing my year-to-date record to 4-2 overall and +1 single unit heading into week three’s action.

However, this time around you would have been fine following my unit plays as I split my 2-unit games, but won my 3-unit play as the Chargers controlled the Bills the entire game last Sunday.

As always, be sure to check out our latest podcast as we talk more about these specific games, but there you can also hear who DJ is betting on as he had another undefeated week, going 3-0 against the spread bringing his year-to-date record to 6-0, +18 units.

Here are my top-three plays for week three in the NFL.

Week 2 results: 2-1; +3 units

Year-to-date results: 4-2; +1 unit

Green Bay Packers -3 @ Washington Redskins

The easiest thing to say about this game is that you’re getting the far superior team that can win by as little as a field goal and you still push. While the NFL, and specifically gambling on it, is a little more complex than that, I wouldn’t try to over think this one.

I put no stock into Washington’s week-one victory over Arizona, especially since the Cardinals backed up their lackluster week-one performance with a showing against the Rams that featured the Cardinals crossing the 50-yard line just one time the entire game.

Last week the Redskins had an opportunity to take advantage of the Colts and Andrew Luck who is still getting back into the swing of things, and proceeded to score just nine points.

Washington seems to be at its best when the run game is the focal point of the offense. We just witnessed the Packers hold Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray to less than 60 rushing yards last week, and while that’s a very small sample size, I’m taking Cook/Murray over Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson every day.

You also have the Packers’ offense coming off a one-touchdown performance against a stingy Vikings’ defense, so you know that’s not going to sit well with Aaron Rodgers this week at practice. I expect the Packers offense to have their best offensive output of the season against the Redskins, so I’m taking Green Bay this week for 3 units.

Denver Broncos +5 @ Baltimore Ravens

So far this season Denver has two extremely close wins while the Ravens have smashed the Buffalo Bills before a one-point loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Not only do I think Denver is a better team than Baltimore, but you’re getting nearly a touchdown by taking the underdog in what I expect to be a close game.

Baltimore if second in the NFL in yards allowed per game, but in this case I’m here to tell you that some stats lie. While I believe the Ravens’ defense is above average, keep in mind that their first opponent was a Nathan Peterman-led Buffalo Bills before they allowed the likes of Andy Dalton to throw four touchdown passes last week.

The Broncos aren’t to be taken lightly on offense so far this year either. They are fourth in the league in yards per game as the Case Keenum/Emmanuel Sanders connection has been solid while Phillip Lindsay has nearly 200 rushing yards on 29 carries.

I’m not confident enough to predict an outright win, but I am willing to risk two units on the Broncos staying within five points.

Point total under 48: Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams

Here’s a fun stat of the week – the LA Rams are allowing just six and a half points per game after the first two weeks of the season. Granted they’ve played the Raiders and Cardinals, but still, it’s the NFL and completely shutting down an opposing team’s offense is a noteworthy accomplishment.

The Chargers haven’t been nearly as good defensively as we predicted, allowing 29 points per game over the first two weeks, but if they want to stay competitive in this game against an explosive Rams’ offense, they’re going to have to step it up on the defensive side of the ball and that’s exactly what I see happening.

This game has a 24-17 feel to it, in my opinion, as I believe it’s very unlikely that we see seven total touchdowns scored in this one. I’m risking two units on the under of 48 total points scored.

 

For more NFL week three gambling advice and daily fantasy sports picks, stacks and bargain plays, be sure to listen to the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast!

Ben Morgan is a co-host and blogger for the Loaded Box Podcast. Check out his article archive and find more from the Loaded Box on Twitter & Facebook

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