Merry Christmas and welcome to week 16, my friends, as we get you prepared for some great bargain plays this week. Let’s review last week’s bargain plays and see if they were a hit or a miss.
Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,600): 11.92 points
Myles Gaskin, Running Back, Miami Dolphins (5,600): 5.4 points
James Robinson, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,400): 17.8 points
Julio Jones, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans ($5,400): 0 points
DeVante Parker, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins ($4,300): 16.8 points
Allen Lazard, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers ($4,000): 4.8 points
Brevin Jordan, Tight End, Houston Texans ($2,800): 0 points
D’Onta Foreman, Running Back, Tennessee Titans ($5,200): 18.5 points
Denver Broncos ($2,900): 4 points
Here I was thinking Ben Roethlisberger would have to throw to keep up with the Titans as I was expecting more of a shootout and not a sleeper. Roethlisberger really relied on his defense and Chris Boswell last week to win the game, 19-13. This was Roethlisberger’s first game without a touchdown pass. Definitely was not what I expected, and a play that only went over 2X…. Barely. Bad play.
I had the right plan for a Miami Dolphins’ running back to play, but the wrong one. Whoops, my bad everyone. Knowing how this Covid-19 affects you, I should have gone with Duke Johnson ($4,000) who smashed as the RB1 for the week with 28.7 points. Process was right, just the wrong player. I’ll make up for it this week!
Welcome back James Robinson to fantasy football relevancy. It was great to see the 21 opportunities on the day as Darrell Bevell knows how to use his good players. Even though the Jaguars lost, Robinson still got plenty of work to make him worth playing. He should smash again this week against the New York Jets.
Oh hamstring injuries, how I hate you! Julio Jones came off injured reserve two weeks ago and made it through the game with no issues. Last week, he gets targeted once, doesn’t catch it and is out with a hamstring injury. The Julio Jones we all knew and loved looks to be on the downside of his career, and it’s going faster than I expected. I gave you all the hype to get a goose egg for the week.
With Jaylen Waddle out of the lineup, I and everyone else in the DraftKings community had DeVante Parker in our lineups. He was a bargain play at his cost, but his 24% ownership made it a “chalk play” once Waddle was out. He served as the top receiver in the Dolphins’ offense and didn’t disappoint. You’re welcome.
The what if scenario could have made Allen Lazard a smash as he had two touchdowns that could have happened but didn’t. First, he had a tough catch that he dropped in the end zone where he landed on his neck. But, that second one was on Aaron Rodgers. Wide open in the end zone on a broken coverage play and was overthrown. I got excited twice, for nothing… what a game that was.
Who would have known Brevin Jordan would be active and not play a single snap Sunday. This one hurt.
What a dominant day for D’Onta Foreman! 22 rushes for 108 yards as the Tennessee Titans identity still hasn’t changed with no Derrick Henry in the lineup. The only thing is missing is the touchdowns, but Foreman will eventually get in again.
Just when I thought Joe Burrow would sling it, the game was more of a defensive battle that Cincinnati won. Who knew? I was thinking he would have thrown it more than 22 times with at least one interception.
What a down week for bargain plays as I went 3/9 (33%), but a week it was, especially for the fantasy football community who had to play week 15 and watch their teams just get destroyed. Or was that just me? Let me know about it on Twitter or the comments below.
But unlike redraft fantasy, in DFS we get to start each and every week with a fresh slate of lineups. So if you lost your fantasy matchups, just know the fun doesn’t have to stop as now is your time in DFS!
Let’s get some bargains for week 16!
Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000)
Now this is a ballsy play and I like it. Trevor Lawrence came into week 1 of the season going 28-of-51 for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The community was higher than a kite thinking this kid is the real deal. Well, since that game he has only thrown six touchdowns and added two rushing, but has also added 14 total turnovers. I know, his stats look like you know what but he gets to take on Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. I like to call this the “Top Rookies Drafted” game. The number 1 pick versus the number 2 pick. What a game it can be as Lawrence will look to get back on track, even though he hasn’t been all season. The kid has talent, we just have been too spoiled lately with the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert lighting it up. Most of you are probably too young to remember Peyton Manning’s rookie season but he threw more interceptions than touchdowns. With one full game without Urban Meyer, I can see Lawrence ending his three-game touchdown drought and getting his first multiple-touchdown game since week 1.
Michael Carter, Running Back, New York Jets ($5,200)
Last week was a “ break the rust off” week as I learned that a couple weeks ago a player coming back from injury doesn’t exactly go right into that top role. Look at Julio Jones (am I still sour? Yes.) who served as the WR1, but didn’t exactly come back as he was just getting back into game shape. Michael Carter came back and split the backfield with Tevin Coleman, but from past experiences, I see why he only had 8 carries, as the coach said “significant role” for Carter in week 15, but that didn’t happen and I’m not surprised. He had his lowest yardage since week 1, but I see that changing this week as we should see that running back that we had back in weeks seven through 10.
Ronald Jones II, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,100)
That was a hell of a game Sunday night wasn’t it? Hell no! What a fricken snoozer! Leonard Fournette sprained his MCL and was listed as out for “one to two weeks”. Now the news comes out that he is going to injured reserve and that makes Ronald Jones the top RB in a Tom Brady offense. It’s funny to see Leonard Fournette listed at $7,300 as the RB4 because DraftKings just loves to get the next week’s slates out there faster than anyone else allowing us to smash on these bargains, like Ronald Jones. Week 15, Jones filled in well for Fournette rushing eight times for 63 yards. Carolina has a solid defense against the run as they are ranked third on DraftKings, but that doesn’t scare me, especially when Tom Brady is coming off his first time being shutout since 2006. Brady will come in hot and Ronald Jones should benefit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions ($5,600)
The rookie has been outstanding over the last three weeks as he’s been targeted 35 times turning that into 26 receptions for 249 yards and two touchdowns. This matchup against the Atlanta Falcons should continue his success as he’s been the WR1 for the Detroit Lions over who I thought would be Josh Reynolds. It’s nice to see Jared Goff’s connection with St. Brown as he’s been his security blanket over the last few weeks and looks like he uses him as his first read. As long as Jared Goff clears the Covid-19 protocols, I am loving this matchup and see four weeks in a row coming on this hot streak for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Odell Beckham Jr, Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Rams ($5,300)
Coming off a one reception game for seven yards, are we really surprised with OBJ coming off the Covid list and this happening? He also had an illness after coming off the Covid list, so that could have played a little bit into this as well. DraftKings sees something here, even after a bad performance from OBJ (they didn’t know that he was going to be this bad as DraftKings gets the next week’s players cost out there before the prior week is over) he increased $400 for week 16 against a mediocre pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings. Cooper Kupp can’t steal all the fantasy points!
Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900)
This one is just way too easy. So easy he’ll probably be the highest owned wide receiver on the slate and I’m fine with it. It’s all in how you build the other eight slots around him that can help you win in week 16. With Chris Godwin out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL and Mike Evans week-to-week, outside of Rob Gronkowski, who is Tom Brady going to throw to? Okay, yes Tyler Johnson ($3,900) and Breshad Perriman ($4,200) are there, but their potential upside isn’t close to Brown’s. Brown has over 13 DK points in 4/6 games and over 24 DK in half the games he’s played. He’s over his ankle injury and serving a three-game suspension for a fake vaccination card and has the potential to finish as the WR1 for week 16.
C.J. Uzohmah, Tight End, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,000)
The Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense is one to target, especially at the tight end position. They have been giving up an average of 5.79 receptions for 64.79 yards and 0.57 touchdowns. It’s a tight end dream for us if we can get 14 DK points from our tight end. The last time Uzohmah played the Ravens he caught all three of his targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns. That pass defense is even worse now than it was then. I don’t see Uzohmah only catching three balls, but I can see his normal 4-5 catches with about six targets, a comfortable 60 yards and a chance for a score.
BONUS PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Ameer Abdullah, Running Back, Carolina Panthers ($4,500)
If you think Buffalo was a tough matchup for the Carolina Panthers, just wait till Tom Brady comes in. Sure Chuba Hubbard ($5,400) is a good value, but he has no role in the passing game, and running the ball lately, well… yeah. Insert Ameer Abdullah. His four carries for seven yards is nothing to be excited about, but catching all four of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown is. The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs this season. Cam Newton is washed but he can dink and dunk with Abdullah as a safety blanket for him.
CHRISTMAS BONUS PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Justin Fields, Quarterback, Chicago Bears ($5,200)
Ho Ho Ho! It’s Christmas time so why not gift you another bargain play in Justin Fields. He saved himself last week with a last-second touchdown and this week his cost is the same as last. Over his last two games, Justin Fields has 3X+. Sure, in the games, he’s still looking like a rookie, and we all wonder how much longer (end of the season, black Monday) head coach Matt Nagy will be there as this team is already in shambles. But you have to love one thing about Fields: his rushing capabilities. The Konami quarterback is someone you should really consider starting this week as he gets Seattle and their biggest weakness in stopping the running game. David Montgomery will get his, but don’t be surprised if Fields also has a good game, if not better rushing than Montgomery.
DEFENSE I’M PLAYING WITH CONFIDENCE:
Seattle Seahawks ($3,000)
Okay, I get it. I recommend a quarterback who should light it up on the ground against the Seattle Seahawks just to turn and say I’m starting them with confidence? Well yeah, of course because if it blows up in my face, I know you can’t wait till next week when I give myself crap. It’s okay. Just admit it. I like the Seahawks this week, because they are at home and play as a totally different team when they are in the house of the 12th man. Like I said about Justin Fields, he’s a rookie and he’s going to make mistakes. I expect a couple sacks here and at least an interception and/or a fumble as Fields has 15 total turnovers on the season. The Seahawks may be ran on the most, but good luck passing on them, unless you’re the Los Angeles Rams.
Good luck this week and Merry Christmas from our families to yours!