Written by Chris Lemke

Now that we’ve let the dust settle and are a couple of weeks past the NFL Draft, let’s take a look at all of the big trades that happened during and what their implications are on the market. Prior to the draft, we had a couple of big WR deals with DaVante Adams going to the Raiders and Tyreek Hill going to the Dolphins. During the draft, we had WRs AJ Brown going to the Eagles and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown going to the Cardinals. Then, just a few days later, we had the DeAndre Hopkins suspension news drop. Since even the most casual Dynasty players had likely seen the big news that occurred, I’ll focus on the implications of these deals, as well as a few others.

BUY:

Kyler Murray

So, Kyler has had quite the off-season. From unfollowing all Cardinal content on Twitter and threatening to go play baseball, to landing Hollywood, and then Hopkins getting suspended… Kyler’s value has been a roller coaster. What I’m focusing on here is the fact that the Cardinals went out and acquired his old college teammate (Hollywood), which appears to be a move in the direction of stability for Kyler and the Cardinals organization. With the Hopkins suspension, you may be able to get Kyler at a slight discount from an owner who is just frustrated with the ups and downs of this off-season and is just looking to get out. This is the time to pounce if he’s available.

Rashod Bateman

With Hollywood leaving Baltimore, it leaves only TE Mark Andrews and Bateman for Lamar Jackson as his main targets. That’s 146 targets out the door that are now up for grabs. It is possible that the Ravens revert back to more of a run heavy scheme, but that was already the plan last year. Two things make me believe that they may not be losing as many pass attempts as most think: One, is that the Ravens defense still isn’t that good. And the second, is that Lamar is progressing as a better thrower of the football. So yes, while JK Dobbins may be returning, I don’t see Bateman losing any targets, only gaining them. Quite simply, more targets equal more points. Go out and get Bateman with confidence, I would use any package of a late 1st Rounder that can get it done.

DeVonta Smith

The other main deal on Opening Night of the Draft had the Eagles acquiring AJ Brown. I’ll be the first person to tell you I wasn’t high on Smith last season. But with that being said, it is time to take advantage of the panicked Smith owners. Their prized draft pick from last year had a decent season, but nothing that made him an untradeable asset. Add that to QB Jalen Hurts‘ perceived limitations and it may have led some owners to want to bail out now. Though it may be true that Smith is now the 3rd option, behind Brown and TE Dallas Goedert, it doesn’t mean he’s fallen off the map. He’s still very young and can at least replicate his numbers from last year. Also, situations change fast in the NFL. There is no guarantee that Hurts is still the QB in Philadelphia heading into 2023. If they get a better passer, you will wish you grabbed Smith now. A late first or early second round pick might be able to do that now.

Other BUYS: Miles Sanders, Elijah Moore, Allen Lazard, 2023 & 2024 Draft Picks

SELL:

Jalen Hurts

Stability is the number one quality I look for in a QB in 2QB/Superflex Dynasty leagues… and Hurts simply does not provide that. It is put up or shut up time for Hurts. Yes, he may step it up this year now that he has a better weapon in Brown, but what if he doesn’t?!? The Eagles still have two 1st Rounders in 2023, and they didn’t just shell out all those picks and money to have some schmuck slinging the rock. I would take advantage of the perceived upside in Hurts, and try to acquire a more stable QB. Either with a lateral QB value move by going after the likes of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, maybe even Derek Carr plus something, OR trying to tier-up into the elite level of QBs. Regardless, I would start exploring the possibilities now. Because if Hurts goes out and doesn’t cut it this year, you aren’t going to be able to get squat for him once he gets benched or moved on from and is nothing but a backup QB.

Rondale Moore

Someone in your league is going to see the Hopkins suspension as an opportunity for Rondale to take over the WR2 role in Arizona. Take advantage of that perception now, because let me tell you, he’s been impossible to move prior to the suspension. Moore was a disappointment his rookie season, and is simply going to be a guy who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. Similar to Mecole Hardman in Kansas City, he’ll have a couple of spike weeks each year that gives owners hope, only to be disappointed with the end of the season results. Get out now if you can.

Gabriel Davis

Let me say this, I LIKE Gabe Davis, the football player. However, I feel like Jamison Crowder is one of the more underrated FA pickups, and Khalil Shakir is one of the more underrated draft picks. They were brought in to take over the Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders roles in this explosive Buffalo offense. And though it’s true that Gabe may get a little bump in production from his 29 yards/game average from last season, I don’t see Gabe completely taking over a WR2 role that gives 75/1000/8 upside at WR. Josh Allen spreads it around to all the options outside of Stefon Diggs (who signed an extension, nullifying any future Gabe WR1 hope) and Gabe still has to fight off Dawson Knox for RedZone looks – Gabe’s best quality. I’m out on a guy that I do like, as being able to get future 1sts for him just presents too much value to pass up on. Sell the hype that still exists from that blow-up game in the playoffs.

Other SELLS: Any 2022 picks after 1.06, and definitely any picks in 2022 after 2.03…the future drafts are just simply more talented

HOLD:

Lamar Jackson

Despite losing Hollywood, and clearly being upset by it, Lamar returns his top target in Andrews, as well as the up-and-coming Bateman. Much like past running QBs like Donavan McNabb, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, and Cam Newton, Lamar is moving into the transition phase of his career of scrambler to passer. I don’t foresee a Vince Young type plummet for Lamar, so don’t bail on him just because Hollywood is out of town. The Ravens may not have drafted him a replacement at WR this year, but I believe it had more to do with contract situation, and the Ravens needing cap space to lock-up Lamar long term. Don’t sell yourself short here, the guy won’t turn 26 until next January, and he’s still one of the top young QBs in the league.

Ryan Tannehill

Okay, so he threw 3 interceptions in their playoff loss, and they drafted the uber-talented Malik Willis in the 3rd Round. It was still THE THIRD ROUND. That means everyone passed on Willis, a projected possible top-10 pick not once, but TWICE. Tannehill is still on the books for 38.6 million this year (with a 57.4 million Dead Cap hit), and 36.6 million in 2023 (18.8 million Dead Cap hit)…they aren’t paying someone this to ride pine. He’ll be the starter in 2022, and he’ll at least get traded somewhere to be a starter in 2023, or stay in Tennessee. Staying with the Titans both years is probably best case scenario for both parties, as Willis will only benefit more if he’s able to sit and learn for 2 years. If you want to sell Tannehill, don’t do it now, wait until the season has started, and a contender comes looking for a solid QB3. Or, even better, a QB injury occurs, and then you’re able to snag a 1st for him.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

Well the time to buy Hollywood has passed, but this also isn’t the time to sell. The Cardinals didn’t throw away a 1st Rounder without having big plans for him. Hollywood averaged around 9 targets/game last year, and expect that to only remain the same or increase now. With the Hopkins suspension, and the built-in college chemistry with Kyler, Hollywood is going to be a main fixture in the high-volume Cardinals pass attack at the very beginning of 2022, and for years to come.

AJ Brown

Many people are panicking and jumping ship on AJB now that he’s got Hurts throwing him the ball. But going from the run-heavy Titans scheme to the run-heavy Eagles scheme is really only a lateral move. Plus, as I mentioned with DeVonta Smith earlier, there’s no guarantee Hurts is still the QB in 2023. On top of that, AJB has been one of the top WRs in efficiency per target over the past 3 seasons. So even if he doesn’t get heavy volume, he’s still going to be effective. And if Hurts improves only a little bit as a passer, look out. Don’t be selling off AJB for pennies on the dollar like I’ve seen him get shipped off for in some deals recently. He is still one of the top-5 most talented WRs in the league, and you should only sell if you’re receiving that kind of compensation in return.

Other HOLDS: DeAndre Hopkins, picks 1.01-1.05 in 2022, your 2023 & 2024 Draft Picks

A sidenote on Draft Picks: I am keeping all of my picks 1.01-105 to draft Breece Hall, Drake London, Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, and Jameson Williams. Everything after that is fair game, and I am looking to sell for proven vets if I’m a contender, or future 2023 & 2024 Draft Capital if I’m rebuilding. Focus on drafting the WRs this year if you’re re-building and those future picks are too expensive.

Remember to buy LOW, sell HIGH… and hold STRONG!

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