Written by Chris Lemke
The Free Agency period of the NFL Offseason has started off with a bang (and that’s being conservative). A total of 7 First Round picks were exchanged amongst the trades of Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, DaVante Adams, and Tyreek Hill. These deals, along with many others, have created a frantic trading window prior to the NFL Draft in Dynasty Fantasy Football.
Let’s take a look at our BUY/SELL/HOLD Report. It’s based on the timeframe as of right now, which is, prior to the NFL Draft. It is also based on the increase or decrease of “perceived” values due to all of the recent action…
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
When you add a top-10 wide receiver and a couple of versatile running backs to an offense that has already sported a top-10 WR and top-10 TE… well, things are going to get even better for the young quarterback. It is Tua’s time to put-up or shut-up, and at his current value, he is a great buy-low candidate. Tua could potentially surge into the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks this year if he has success (but that is definitely a big “if”).
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Trading for a talent like Adams can only boost the strength of this Raiders offense. Though Adams’ presence may slightly devalue Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, Carr is now looking at a real solid cast to throw to. In a division filled with offensive riches, Carr should be in many high-scoring shootouts, and that’s what we like in fantasy.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
This may seem odd, seeing as he just lost his crutch in Adams, but Rodgers just signed a 4-year extension, and that is GOOD news for Dynasty owners. Couple that with the talent that the reigning NFL MVP has and you have a recipe for top-end points at the QB spot for the next four years. Some people are down on him, but it’s not like Rodgers has forgotten how to throw a football. He will figure out how to go back to spreading the ball around a bit more like he did earlier in his career. Buy Rodgers before they sign one of the remaining Free Agent WRs, like Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, or Will Fuller. They’re also like to draft a talented rookie in either round 1 or 2 of the upcoming NFL Draft… which will only raise Rodgers’ price tag over the next month or so.
Any Buccaneer (Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski*, and Russell Gage)
The un-retirement of Tom Brady should say it all. This offense will continue to be in the top-5 and produce plenty of yards and touchdowns. This is obviously more prevalent for “Win-now” teams, as we probably will go through the same kind of retirement questions (again) with Brady after the 2022 season.
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
This gunslinger seems to have learned a lot from Sean Payton and sitting behind Drew Brees for a season definitely didn’t hurt either. He was at a 14/3 TD/INT ratio before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in game 7 last year. With Michael Thomas returning, and possibly a top rookie WR added to his disposal, this can only help Jameis. Don’t forget that he was throwing to a cupboard that was completely bare last season. He’s still only 28 years old and has a lot of ball left in him.
Other BUYS: Michael Pittman, Josh Jacobs, Ricky Seals-Jones, the 2022 1.01 (Breece Hall), and 2023 & 2024 1st Round Picks
Deshaun Watson (QB, Cle)
What?!? You’re telling me I should now turn around and sell the dude I’ve been sitting on for a year waiting to play? YES, I am. This whole song and dance that ended up with Watson as a Brown just gives me eerie “Dante Culpepper to the Dolphins” vibes, where he showed up with a beer-belly and was complete trash the rest of his career. There’s no doubt that Watson is immensely talented and is actually currently sitting at the back end of the 2nd tier of my Dynasty QB Rankings (tier 1 – Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, Justin Herbert, tier 2 – Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott) … But what if this goes wrong? What if he doesn’t mesh well with new Coach Kevin Stefanski? What if he shows up out of shape after just getting 230 million dollars…FULLY GUARANTEED? I’m saying it is worth exploring what you can get on top of one of the “BUY” QBs that I’ve already listed. Maybe come away with Tua plus a 1st or two? Sign me up for that. What about Carr, Jacobs & a 1st? Sure, I’m in. Just explore the possibilities, that’s all I’m saying.
Trey Lance (QB, SF)
Following a deep playoff run, I’m sure the 49ers thought they’d have no problem with dealing Jimmy Garoppolo. Well, that hasn’t happened yet, and it’s possible that it doesn’t. Then what? Does Lance sit another year behind Jimmy G? It’s possible, and you have to remember that the 49ers aren’t playing Fantasy Football, nor do they care about how many fantasy points your prized early pick from last season scores. If Lance isn’t ready to take the reigns, it’s going to be another year of Jimmy G. I’ve seen some great value in return for Lance recently (solid QB plus more is ideally what I’m talking about). If you need/want some production now from your quarterback this upcoming season, it might be worthwhile to throw Lance out there and see what you could possibly get in return.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
The second that Russell Wilson to Denver was made official, Courtland Sutton’s value immediately spiked. Yes, it’s true, Wilson coming to the Broncos definitely helps all of members on the Broncos offense. However, it pays to temper those expectations. There have been posts calling Sutton “this year’s Cooper Kupp“. You have to remember that Kupp was VERY special last season, and I don’t see that getting repeated by anyone this year in Denver. Whether it’s Jerry Jeudy or Sutton who becomes Wilson’s favorite new target, it just isn’t going to happen. Did you know that in games that Jeudy played last year (10 games), Sutton averaged only 4 targets and 19 yards! I know this all too well because I owned him, and I was more than happy to flip Sutton for a 1st rounder when the Wilson deal was announced. Tim Patrick outplayed Sutton in those weeks last season, and there’s no guarantee that he won’t outplay Sutton again this season. Plus, you still have Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam there…and Javonte Williams catching balls… I just think there’s more mouths to feed in Denver than Russell had in Seattle, and I really do believe that he will spread around the wealth. All of these factors severely limit Sutton’s ceiling, and it’s time to sell the hype.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, KC) and Ronald Jones (RB, KC)
Any player that goes to the Chiefs immediately fancies the majority of fantasy owners because they get the chance to play with Pat Mahomes. Well, temper those expectations and take advantage of it if you own either of these guys. MVS is basically replacing Byron Pringle and/or DeMarcus Robinson, and RoJo is replacing Darrel Williams. So, look at those guys numbers from last year and you’ll see that MVS & RoJo aren’t going to be doing much better. If you can get a 2nd for MVS, and possibly more for RoJo, I’d sell the hype without thinking twice.
Other SELLS: Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Lockett, Allen Lazard, DJ Chark, Chase Edmonds, James Conner, 2022 picks 1.07 & later
DK Metcalf (WR, SEA)
So, Russell Wilson leaves, and your new quarterback is…Drew Lock?!? Get him outta here, right? Not so fast. It wasn’t that long ago that DK was valued as the #1 WR in Dynasty by many, and if any of the rumors of him going to the Packers, Chiefs, or Bills come to fruition, DK’s value will immediately skyrocket back into the nearly “Untradeable” stratosphere. It may not happen until Draft Day, but IF DK gets Rodgers, Mahomes, or Allen dropping him bombs for the next 5+ years – you’re going to want to be along for the ride. You’re going to feel sick to your stomach if you sold him for the single 1st, and unfortunately that’s what I have been seeing him go for in some deals lately.
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
The Browns were able to snatch up Amari for a 6th rounder from the Cowboys. This now gives Watson a solid veteran to throw to. Amari is a HOLD if you currently own him, and if you want Amari, now isn’t the time to buy him. Wait until weeks 3-5 in the regular season. The current owner will get frustrated with Jacoby Brissett‘s performance while Watson is sitting out for a presumed suspension. That will be the time to pounce and scoop up Cooper for less than he’s worth. Once Watson joins the team, it’ll be wheels up for Cooper.
Melvin Gordon (RB, Free Agent)
This is going to be one of the bigger signings of the off-season, once it happens. Does Melvin reunite with his former college teammate, Russell Wilson, now that he’s in Denver? This will crush the upside that all Javonte Williams’ owners are pining for this season but would be a good move for Gordon. Or does he go to a situation where he’s the main back on a bad team, like Houston or Atlanta? He could also take on a solid split-role for a contender, like Buffalo, Baltimore, Arizona, or even go back to the Chargers. This is where you hold strong, and don’t give him away for a late 2nd or early 3rd round dart-throw. Once he signs, you can easily get an earlier 2nd or maybe even a 1st if a contender is desperate enough for a running back.
Other HOLDS: Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Joe Mixon, Rashaad Penny, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, DJ Moore, Hunter Renfrow, Juju Smith-Schuster, Terry McLaurin, 2022 picks 1.02-1.06
Making deals RIGHT NOW can be some of the most important deals you make in your entire season. The values are all over the place and are as fluid as they’ll be in the off-season (other than during the actual NFL Draft). Take advantage and SELL the hype…and BUY the dip!
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