Week 5 Recap –
Cash Game Lineup – 105.34, Holy shit I’m just overthinking it at this point. We all know that feeling when we are changing our lineups late in the week that we are fucking up. If you saw my last article you know what went wrong.
Tournament Lineup – 105.18, FUCK
What else to do on a cold streak other than gamble on….. 1-800-GAMBLER
Cash Game Plays
Cam Newton, New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos – $6,500
Naked Cam. The ol’ classic cash game strategy. When a QB can be effective on his own, you should never feel the need to stack them. Superman is very effective in the red zone and the Patriots have shown that they draw up plenty of plays to get him in the best position to score.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons – $7,200
**CASH GAME LOCK OF THE WEEK**
Easiest play of the week. Mattison is one of the most talented backup running backs in the league. We have confirmation that Dalvin Cook will be out this week so fire up Mattison in this matchup against an extremely soft Falcons defense.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions – $6,800
After not even being selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, Robinson has found his way into a starting role in Jacksonville and the team has rewarded him with double-digit rushing attempts in each of the team’s five games. If his volume stays on par with what we’ve seen so far this season, his high floor remains in tact and he has a great chance of reaching the 100-yard mark against the Lions’ rushing defense. D.J. Chark remains a big question mark for Sunday, so the Jags may have to rely on Robinson even more in this one.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers – $5,800
David Montgomery has been seeing a much higher target share since Tarik Cohen went down. I do not think Montgomery is the greatest talent, but his price and this matchup against the Carolina Panthers makes him an easy pick at flex in cash.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers- $8,000
I am so glad this man is back on the main slate. MVP level Aaron Rodgers activates the elite talent of Davante Adams and grants him the highest floor at his position. With multiple touchdown upside. Easy.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins – $6,100
LOOK AT THE TARGETS. Constant negative game script.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts – $4,700
Higgins has officially usurped A.J. Green in the Cincinnati Bengals offense. Joe Burrow clearly has a crush on this guy so let’s buy all the Tee Higgins we can until his price erupts.
Irv Smith, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons – $2,500
Stone minimum priced tight end. Smith also ran more routes than Kyle Rudolph last week and I do not see that reverting. Love getting cheap exposure to this game.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,100
This game should be bananas. Kirk is ranked #2 in the NFL in air yards per attempt and he loves to throw to his two reliable receivers. Both of these teams lack anything close to a decent defense and the way the NFL is being played this season, the over/under should look closer to 70.5 than 50.5. All we need is Atlanta to put up a fight and it will be a fireworks show.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600
Aaron Jones has been my favorite tournament play this year. He is technically in a committee and does not see as many touches as all the running back at this price point, but has been one of the most, if not THE most efficient in the league with the touches he gets.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team @ New York Giants – $5,500
Gibson has seen five targets the last two weeks. He has also been seeing about 15 touches and averaging 73 yards per scrimmage in each game. If there was ever a game where his averages could sky rocket, it would be this one. As long as Washington continues to give him a higher snap share, he could breakout this week. The talent is definitely there.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings – $7,800
Ridley is my run it back play of this week. The game stack with Minnesota and Atlanta can be a very potent one. Julio Jones still isn’t 100 percent healthy so Ridley will continue to be the #1 in that offense. Calvin has a knack for getting into the end zone but has not seen it since week 2. Expect at least one trip to the end zone this Sunday.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons – $7,300
**TOURNAMENT LOCK OF THE WEEK**
Whenever you want to stack, playing the receiver with a 35.48% target share is always a good decision. Thielen is a top-5 receiver on the year. I have no idea why he is priced below some of the other receivers on this slate but the stars are aligning for him to have a #1 overall week.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,000
Jefferson and Thielen combine to have a 54% target share in this Vikings offense. Minnesota is just one of those teams that has a very condensed target distribution. When I decided I wanted to stack this game, playing Cousins with Thielen was optimal but adding another huge piece to cover all of my avenues seems like the best play possible. There should be high ownership on these Vikings players, but I do not see everyone stacking them all together.
Damiere Byrd, New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos – $3,500
Byrd is slowly becoming the number one option for Cam Newton in the Patriots offense. He is playing on over 90% of the snaps and is running a route on every single pass play. Great potential boom play if the game gets up tempo.
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns – $4,100
This game between the Steelers and the Browns is why I love this pick. Cleveland makes tight ends look elite no matter who they are and Ben Roethlisberger will see his own tight end open on many occasions.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts – $2,100
TOURNAMENT STACK OF THE WEEK
Kirk Cousins + Adam Thielen + Justin Jefferson
Run it back with Calvin Ridley
Be sure to check out the latest episode of the Loaded Box Podcast as we provide our top against the spread pics for Week 6 in the NFL!